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The Future of the Stock Market

February 18, 2009 RSS Feed Print

Does anyone still believe that the stock market will once again return an average of 10 percent a year, as it did in the 20th century?

I asked Jim Lund, a Minneapolis-based senior financial advisor for Ameriprise Financial, for his take on the future of returns. He said:

It's anybody's guess. But I do base my future decisions on historical information. I do believe we will revert to the mean... Chances are, yes, history will repeat itself. When that will occur is another question. It's never a straight line. We won't see 10 percent a year for the next 10, 20, 30, 40 years. We might say 5 or 10 percent this year, 20 percent next year, then negative five, plus 10. Even if it's closer to [averaging] 8, somewhere in that range makes me feel comfortable. We use average rates of 8 percent or less for long-term scenarios. We don't want to make unrealistic expectations.

For more, read What If Stocks Never Go Up Again?

Tags:: personal finance

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Just a quick note,think about the earthquake it caused if the market went up 5 points
back in the 30's and 40's.Then it was kind of common as time went along.Then the late 70's,80's and to present.We have 100,200 300,pt. swings and find it common place.Now, I'm going on record,after 2010,a 1,000 point swing north or south will be common place.Especially with the Saudi's,China and India becoming bigger major players than what they are now.A major shake up is coming,just a matter of when.I'm all in because I feel Greed will catch on to our neighbors just as it did with us in the early days.

Inostan of FL 11:13AM October 09, 2009

Every trade means commissions. Volume and not actual stock prices keeps Wallstreet traders happy. Mostly investors are hurt when stock prices inflate to unreasonable levels, like 50 times earnings as in many recent cases before the bust. The companies get hurt when banks won't lend them short term funds to meet their monthly expenses because their stock prices take a dive and their stock ratings drop dramatically. If the stock market weren't such a speculative gambling enterprise, no one in their right mind would buy stock in a company at prices higher than 10 times earnings, presuming the companies have actual assets beyond a sales organization. I mean, what do they actually own besides blue sky? When the blue sky falls, there's very little for investors to hang on to, even through bankruptcy proceedings.

Tony Lee of CA 3:48PM February 18, 2009

The Future of the Stock Market

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