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Forget Saudi Peak Oil—Worry About Peak Grain
Tweet Share on Facebook May 21, 2008 Comment (10)To oil world watchers and worriers, the words Twilight in the Desert are instantly recognizable. That's the name of the book by energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, who used hundreds of internal documents to bolster his case that oil production has peaked or soon will be peaking in Saudi Arabia—home to what the world trusts as the largest source of petroleum reserves. But it turns out that long before we learn whether Simmons's prediction pans out, the sun is setting on another resource in the kingdom.
Grain production in Saudi Arabia is now down 42 percent from the peak of 4.9 million tons reached in 1994 and is now on track to decline rapidly in the coming years. Thanks to Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute for compiling these figures from the U.S. Department of Agriculture:
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Summer Gas-Price Outlook Fuels Car Nostalgia
Tweet Share on Facebook May 19, 2008 Comment (16)With the first weekend of summer driving season approaching and gasoline closing in on $4 per gallon, Washington did the two paltry things it could do quickly. The administration stopped stockpiling emergency supplies of oil, after an overwhelming rebuke of that policy by Congress. And President Bush went hat in hand to the Saudis, who after initial balking, agreed to a modest production increase in a few weeks. The price of oil has wavered little in response.
Far from making progress on the nation's energy woes, there is evidence that we've actually regressed. No one summed this up for me better than a recent commenter to this blog who noted that he bought a Geo Metro that got 50 miles per gallon in 1992 for less than $10,000. No car is on U.S. highways today with that kind of mileage except the expensive hybrids (and then, only when you're driving slowly and in electric mode.)
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Stockpiling Our Way to $120-Per-Barrel Crude?
Tweet Share on Facebook May 5, 2008 Comment (2)Now that the price of crude oil has surged past $120 per barrel, let's revisit the December prediction of petroleum economist Philip Verleger, who said this was bound to happen and blamed the Bush administration's policy on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
As reported here, Verleger said that he believed last fall's run-up in oil prices could be traced back to the way the administration was stashing away oil in the SPR—taking off the market a crucial amount of the favored light, sweet crude oil, the easiest oil to refine. Furthermore, he said there was a risk that things could get worse because in the first months of 2008, the Bush administration had plans to increase the percentage of light, sweet crude it stockpiled while reducing the share that is heavy, sour crude—more plentiful, cheaper, and harder to refine.
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The Gas Tax Vacation: A Cheap Holiday
Tweet Share on Facebook May 1, 2008 Comment (8)Of the many ideas cheapened by this election year's campaign rhetoric, perhaps none has been devalued as much as the notion of a holiday. The "summer gas tax holiday" first proposed by Republican nominee John McCain and quickly taken up by his would-be Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, would put $18 more in the pocket of the typical driver this summer, says an analysis by the Taxpayers for Common Sense.
Of course, the antigovernment-waste group is relying on the analysis of Jeffrey Perloff, an economist at University of California-Berkeley, who says only half of the savings would be passed on to consumers. But let's assume he's wrong and motorists will see all of the savings. That's $36, and still sounds like a pretty cheap holiday to me.
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More Families Face Utility Shut-Off This Spring
Tweet Share on Facebook April 29, 2008 Comment (3)Winter may be over, but for millions of families across the country, the heating bills remain.
The National Energy Assistance Directors' Association, which represents the state officials that administer the federal low-income energy assistance program, has compiled some early data showing more households have fallen behind in utility payments this winter. These are households on the edge, because in most states, after the cold weather moratorium is lifted at the end of April, they face cutoff of electricity or natural gas service.
Here are some of the states and the number of households in arrears:
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Truckers Call for Help on Diesel Prices
Tweet Share on Facebook April 25, 2008 Comment (15)How would you like to pay $1,000 for a fill-up at the gas station? If you drive a truck, you could well be forking over that kind of money a few times a week. The nation's average price of diesel fuel has ratcheted up 24 percent since the start of the year to $4.14 per gallon—that's up 45 percent over a year ago.
The price of oil may be annoyance or hardship for most of us, but it is an outright threat to the livelihoods of many of the people who bring us our food, clothing, electronics, and toys. If you find yourself behind slow-moving trucks on the interstate, flying the American flag, or if you see a convoy of rigs making their way around the streets of Washington, D.C., on Monday, it's the truck drivers' call for help.
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New Power Plants Loom, Even With Efficiency Gains
Tweet Share on Facebook April 24, 2008 Comment (2)The Washington, D.C., suburb of Montgomery County, Md., is aiming to become the first county in the country to require that new homes be built to federal Energy Star standards. That means good windows and tightly sealed and well-insulated walls—all things that we know can cut energy consumption by 15 to 30 percent. The builders don't like it; they say it will drive up costs. And before the Montgomery County Council's unanimous vote, the Bush administration weighed in with a letter from an Environmental Protection Agency branch chief, saying it does not advocate putting Energy Star standards into law.
This is the very debate we explored in our current cover story on energy efficiency.
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Efficiency: the Unloved Solution That Works
Tweet Share on Facebook April 21, 2008 Comment (1)In a way, the TV news producer was looking for the same thing we all are looking for. She was considering having me come on air to talk about our new cover story, "Why America Needs an Energy Diet." But she wanted to hear tips for the home that were unusual—something that people haven't heard before.
That's the thing about energy efficiency. We've heard before—time and again—that we could use a lot less electricity—but we keep using more.
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Bush Tackles Climate Without Change
Tweet Share on Facebook April 17, 2008 CommentEarly in his call this week for the nation to halt the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, President Bush made clear how little leadership he intends to provide, even if it were now possible for him to do so in his administration's waning months. "We believe we need to protect our environment," he said. "We believe we need to strengthen our energy security. We believe we need to grow our economy. And we believe the only way to achieve these goals is through continued advances in technology."
I'd like to introduce the president to the McKinsey greenhouse gas abatement curve found here, a graph that nearly six months after its release is well known in the energy world.
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Shell Sees Three Hard Truths for the Future
Tweet Share on Facebook April 14, 2008 Comment (2)Shell, which for 40 years has been writing future scenarios as a way of grappling with the forces shaping its industry, already has gotten a great deal of attention for its latest set—the first time the giant oil company has concluded that there actually is a preferred course. The scenarios are called "Scramble" and "Blueprints," and they suggest that from looking at current global dynamics, nations will either be fighting each other for dwindling resources or will chart a course for international cooperation on energy and climate.
I had an opportunity to talk to Shell's chief economist, Jeremy Bentham, about the scenarios. Although I'll share the bulk of the interview in a later post, I thought it was worth considering what he called the "three hard truths" that underlie both of the future scenarios, as Shell sees it.
