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Forget Saudi Peak Oil—Worry About Peak Grain
Tweet Share on Facebook May 21, 2008 Comment (10)To oil world watchers and worriers, the words Twilight in the Desert are instantly recognizable. That's the name of the book by energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, who used hundreds of internal documents to bolster his case that oil production has peaked or soon will be peaking in Saudi Arabia—home to what the world trusts as the largest source of petroleum reserves. But it turns out that long before we learn whether Simmons's prediction pans out, the sun is setting on another resource in the kingdom.
Grain production in Saudi Arabia is now down 42 percent from the peak of 4.9 million tons reached in 1994 and is now on track to decline rapidly in the coming years. Thanks to Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute for compiling these figures from the U.S. Department of Agriculture:
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Summer Gas-Price Outlook Fuels Car Nostalgia
Tweet Share on Facebook May 19, 2008 Comment (16)With the first weekend of summer driving season approaching and gasoline closing in on $4 per gallon, Washington did the two paltry things it could do quickly. The administration stopped stockpiling emergency supplies of oil, after an overwhelming rebuke of that policy by Congress. And President Bush went hat in hand to the Saudis, who after initial balking, agreed to a modest production increase in a few weeks. The price of oil has wavered little in response.
Far from making progress on the nation's energy woes, there is evidence that we've actually regressed. No one summed this up for me better than a recent commenter to this blog who noted that he bought a Geo Metro that got 50 miles per gallon in 1992 for less than $10,000. No car is on U.S. highways today with that kind of mileage except the expensive hybrids (and then, only when you're driving slowly and in electric mode.)
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Stockpiling Our Way to $120-Per-Barrel Crude?
Tweet Share on Facebook May 5, 2008 Comment (2)Now that the price of crude oil has surged past $120 per barrel, let's revisit the December prediction of petroleum economist Philip Verleger, who said this was bound to happen and blamed the Bush administration's policy on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
As reported here, Verleger said that he believed last fall's run-up in oil prices could be traced back to the way the administration was stashing away oil in the SPR—taking off the market a crucial amount of the favored light, sweet crude oil, the easiest oil to refine. Furthermore, he said there was a risk that things could get worse because in the first months of 2008, the Bush administration had plans to increase the percentage of light, sweet crude it stockpiled while reducing the share that is heavy, sour crude—more plentiful, cheaper, and harder to refine.
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The Gas Tax Vacation: A Cheap Holiday
Tweet Share on Facebook May 1, 2008 Comment (8)Of the many ideas cheapened by this election year's campaign rhetoric, perhaps none has been devalued as much as the notion of a holiday. The "summer gas tax holiday" first proposed by Republican nominee John McCain and quickly taken up by his would-be Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, would put $18 more in the pocket of the typical driver this summer, says an analysis by the Taxpayers for Common Sense.
Of course, the antigovernment-waste group is relying on the analysis of Jeffrey Perloff, an economist at University of California-Berkeley, who says only half of the savings would be passed on to consumers. But let's assume he's wrong and motorists will see all of the savings. That's $36, and still sounds like a pretty cheap holiday to me.
