Capital Commerce


November 2006


Time to Raise Taxes?

Robert Rubin, Treasury secretary under President Clinton, recently told the Washington Economic Club that "you cannot solve this nation's fiscal problems without increased revenue." Oh, and in case you think that Rubin, a noted deficit hawk, might have been talking about imaginative ways to ...

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Handicapping the Next Recession

Before you buy that plasma TV for the family room or splurge on an 80-gig iPod for your office "secret Santa" party, it might be nice to know if the economy is about to tank (And nothing like today's triple-digit drop in the Dow to give one the shakes.) No surprise; forecasting such downturns is ...

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What to Do if the Economy Tanks

The White House has offered a pretty upbeat assessment of the economy heading into 2007: steady 3 percent growth, falling inflation, and continued low unemployment. But what if Team Bush is wrong? What if the U.S. economy slips into a recession or a period of sluggish growth with rising ...

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Slowing Economy Could Be Much Worse

"White House warns of slowdown ahead"–that's the headline that CNN.com gave to this afternoon's news that the Bush administration (specifically the Council of Economic Advisers, the Treasury Department, and the Office of Management and Budget) had lowered its economic growth forecast for this year ...

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Global Business Leaders Fret About Protectionist America

It's common wisdom that most of the world is crazy-go-nuts about the Democrats taking control of Congress. Not that folks are so wild about Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid, in particular. It's just that President Bush is so amazingly unpopular that any time he takes some lumps, it's greeted with cheers ...

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Did Bush Win by Losing?

President Bush's subdued showing at his press conference Wednesday was nothing like his rather peppery performance right after he won re-election in 2004. Could it have been all just an act? Maybe Bush is actually better off having lost the House and apparently the Senate than with the GOP narrowly ...

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A Few Observations on the Big Democratic Win

— Yesterday's elections results bring to mind this quote from a recent story I wrote about the impact of a Democratic congressional victory. As a Bush administration official put it then, "The president is going to be a veto machine."

— Expect Democrats to force Republicans to cast a lot of ...

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The Latest Election Odds

A lot of political junkies–particularly those on Wall Street–love to check out TradeSports, a Dublin-based betting market. There, they can see the latest odds on U.S. elections as well as the chances of various events taking place, such as capturing Osama bin Laden or airstrikes against Iran and ...

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Why Day Traders Love Elections

What will tomorrow's elections mean for the markets and economy? To be honest, most investors, analysts, and economists I talk to are more concerned about 1) what the Federal Reserve will do next, and 2) what the eventual spillover from the bursting housing bubble will be to the rest of the ...

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Eight Things Political Junkies Should Consider

If you're a politics nut who's betting on the outcome of next week's midterm elections—and whose eyes are bleeding from all the bouncy-bouncy polls—here are a few other factors to consider:

— In his morning note today, veteran Washington observer Greg Valliere of Stanford Washington Research writes ...

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Next Week's Election Numbers Today?

Will Democrats capture the House? And, if so, by how much? Polls on congressional races tend to be a bit spotty. To attack the question from a different angle, I checked in with Tom Brunell, a political science professor at the University of Texas–Dallas. He, along with fellow poli-sci Prof.

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Are Improving Economic Attitudes Too Little and Late for GOP?

So what do Americans think about President Bush's handling of economic policy? A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows attitudes are improving, with 46 percent of voters approving his management and 48 percent disapproving. That's a gain from 39 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval in ...

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