Recession Fears Continue to Fade

More and more, it looks as if the economic expansion will continue.


The current economic boom continues to amaze (some) with its resiliency—despite the mortgage mess and housing implosion. The well-respected forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers is looking for third-quarter gross domestic product to come in at a robust 3.4 percent, while JPMorgan is looking for 3 percent plus, saying that "recent economic news has...been comforting." In fact, its economists now think the economy is so strong that the Federal Reserve is probably done cutting short-term interest rates.

Trade is a big reason for the good news. As economic consulting firm Global Insight puts it: "Major export markets in Canada, Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia continue to demonstrate very solid growth. Taken in conjunction with the much lower level for the U.S. dollar, this is expected to propel exports higher and provide solid underpinnings for the continuation of the business cycle expansion through 2008."