Capital Commerce

Is the Market Forecasting a Recession?

November 19, 2007 RSS Feed Print

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Another lousy day on Wall Street as I write this, but Mr. Market isn't making his recession call quite yet, according to Jason Trennert of Strategas Research:

We've constructed the Strategas Bellwether Index out of those stocks most highly correlated with GDP—the fit between the index and GDP growth is 74%. Worth noting, the index has shown a slowdown in growth, but still does not appear as weak as during the 2001 recession.