Betting Markets Race Toward Obama

Barack Obama

In the stock market, they call it "capitulation." It's the moment when the bulls finally throw in the towel. Taking one look at the Intrade betting markets this morning, I certainly sense capitulation in the air when it comes to the Democratic presidential race.

The "Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008" contract is down to 41.5 while the "Barack Obama to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008" contract is up to 58. They have completely flipped. I think the Hillary bulls are beginning to throw in the towel.

Having closely watched these two contracts over the past year, I know just how stubborn this group has been. Total perma-bulls. And I don't think it was the Super Tuesday results alone that turned the tide. I think it was the report that Clinton is lending money to her campaign at the same time that a deluge of campaign dollars is flooding Obama's coffers.

The other side of the trade: Older female voters and Hispanic voters are so pro-Hillary that all of Obama's money and momentum won't shake them, and she'll win states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas—and the nomination.

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