Capital Commerce


February 2008


No Recession Here—Move Along Now

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Let's see now, President Bush doesn't think there's going to be a recession in 2008. Neither does Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke—though clearly he's pretty concerned about "downside risks." And, increasingly, neither do the betting markets. Over at Intrade, the odds of a recession have ...

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TAGS:
recession
economy

An Analysis of Obama's Trade Bill

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Two British economists don't care for the Patriot Employer Act, a bill introduced last August by Barack Obama and several other Democrats. The legislation would provide a tax credit equal to 1 percent of taxable income to employers that meet a number of requirements, such as keeping steady the ...

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Don’t Bet on a Recession

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"No recession," says the sliding bond market. "No recession," say surging oil prices. "No recession," say rising commodity prices. "No recession," says Gail Fosler, the highly respected chief economist at the Conference Board. Well, that may be overstating things a touch. At least a downturn is ...

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TAGS:
recession

Stagflation Nation?

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It's flashback time over at the Wall Street Journal this morning, where Greg Ip observes that the United States "faces an unwelcome combination of looming recession and persistent inflation that is reviving angst about stagflation, a condition not seen since the 1970s." Inflation is up over the ...

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TAGS:
inflation
recession
economy

Now This Is Worrisome...

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Economist Michael Darda over at MKM Partners attempts to ruin my weekend with this observation:

Swap spreads (simple version: the difference between interest rate on private and government debt) officially re-entered "crisis territory" today (which we view as 75-80 [basis points] or more). This ...

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TAGS:
credit
stocks
recession
economy

The Fear Economy, Take 2

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A survey conducted by insurance giant MetLife found that 85 percent of respondents believe the U.S. economy is headed in the wrong direction today vs. 64 percent a year ago, with roughly half predicting the economy will be worse this year than last year. Most economists would agree with that ...

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TAGS:
economy

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