4 Signs We Are Not in a Recession

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And nine months later, it turns out, we ARE in a recession and we WERE in a recession when this piece was written. Now go back and look at all the other rubbish the "there is no recession" people have been shoveling...

Bill Abbott of CA 4:45PM December 01, 2008

the u.s is not in a recession.

miles of AR 4:00PM September 12, 2008

it never ceases to amaze me that the self-assuring are so certain that this economy will is in good condition.
1) it is not just the Sub-prime mort. is now hitting the fixed rate and commercial sector.
2) the credit card industry and the automotove are taking a serious hit
3) gas will be at 5.00 a gallon by August if not sooner, will into the hurricane season which will have even greater impact and WILL shut down the pumps in most states.
by then more pink slips will be handed across the board.

kyle morgan of KS 1:26PM June 21, 2008

I became unconvinced that we are headed for a recession when I
read that sub-prime lending bonds amount to only 1.4% of all
bonds globally. They could all be bad and it wouldn't amount
to a hill of nothing.
Yes, continual scare-mongering could become a self-fullfilling prophecy
if everyone hides their money under their mattress, but I would say
this has the markings of a slowdown, not a recession.
People are working, paying their debts, and as far as those leaving
the workforce, no one knows that, and no one knows why if they
are. Could be aging Americans retiring.

Carl of TX 11:42PM March 17, 2008

This is all acedemic. Considering how fast and powerfully the economy and jobs were growing over the last six years even if this is technically a recession what does that mean? Most strong runs end with a pull back when forces get ahead of themselves (just look at all marker runs). It seems to me that the economy is still growing, evem if it's really slowly now.

tune311 of NY 10:47PM March 13, 2008

This is a pretty mild downturn for a recession. Certainly allot more jobs and market value were lost during the tech meltdown in mid-2000. I find economists are quick to cry recession or recovery depending on what's news worthy.

Tom of NJ 10:43PM March 13, 2008

Keeping selling Sara, keep selling.

crypt2121 of NY 9:29PM March 13, 2008

1. You commit errors of omission. Your read on jobless claims fails to note the fact that the economy lost 63,000 jobs in February AND that another 450,000 people dropped out of the workforce.
2. You interpret the economic indicators to suit your bias. You write that "core" retail sales fell .2% when, in fact, overall retail sales, including slumping auto and parts sales, fell .6% last month. That's the headline number, dude, not the one you site!
3. You are hopelessly selective in your use of data. You site one computer model as a 'sign we are not in recession'? In fact, the vast majority of research suggests now otherwise --- according to today's Wall Street Journal, more than two-thirds of economists believe we ALREADY in a recession.
4. Your sources are as biased as you are. Despite the crush of numbers showing an accelerating decline in the economy, you pick a blatantly partisan source who suggests that the economy only stands a 15% chance of going into recession. I'll bet this guy also thinks they're still hiding WMDs in Iraq.
My guess is that you'll only realize the economy is in recession when you get your pink slip, which should arrive any day now.

Sara Bellum of TX 6:01PM March 13, 2008