4 Signs We Are Not in a Recession

I know we are supposed to be in a recession since Warren Buffett said so, but the data refuse to fully cooperate:

1) Jobless claims remain stubbornly low. Initial claims in the week ending March 8 were unchanged at 353,000, while the four-week average edged down to 358,500 from 359,750.

2) Consumers keep spending. Yes, core retail sales slipped 0.2 percent in February, but the gain in January was nudged up to 0.6 percent from 0.4 percent. The econ team at Global Insight thus concludes that "real consumption spending, therefore, is still expected to eke out a slight gain in the first quarter of 2008."

3) The economy keeps growing. The computer model at Macroeconomic Advisers, a well-respected outfit, is forecasting first-quarter growth of 1 percent. That's not great, but it's not a recession.

4) Another model, created by Tim Kane, chief labor economist for the Republicans on the Joint Economic Committee, has found that the unemployment rate is about the best economic forecasting variable out there. And based on that, Kane's model says there is roughly a 15 percent chance of a recession.