Capital Commerce


March 2008


Global Boom May Bail Out America

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JPMorgan economist Jim Glassman sums up the current state of play:

The US economy is stalled, barely growing. It's not in recession—not what we normally mean by that label—and probably will avoid one. The rest of the world is booming. The commodity (and farm) economies in the United States—from ...

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TAGS:
economy
recession

Recession: We May Not Be There Yet

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Just a quickie. Economist Robert Brusca sees a silver lining in today's personal income and consumer spending numbers: "Looks like we are still set for a small plus number for Q2 GDP growth. Remember Q4 GDP was weak but Q3 GDP was very strong. Nothing that looks like a recession is in the works ...

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TAGS:
recession

Bailout Politics: Count McCain In

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John McCain gave further insight into his economic views today. Along with his views that 1) a cap-and-trade system is the best way to deal with carbon emissions, 2) the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts were tilted too far toward the rich, and 3) pharmaceutical companies are the "bad guys" in America's ...

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TAGS:
McCain, John
economy

Bailout Update

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The GBH (Greatest Bailout in History) gains momentum. David Wessel of the WSJ spreads the word (boldface mine):

Mr. Paulson is losing his argument that the government response, so far, is sufficient—even with all the Fed has done, all Mr. Paulson has done to prod mortgage servicers to ...

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TAGS:
housing market
economy

4 Signs We Are Not in a Recession

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I know we are supposed to be in a recession since Warren Buffett said so, but the data refuse to fully cooperate:

1) Jobless claims remain stubbornly low. Initial claims in the week ending March 8 were unchanged at 353,000, while the four-week average edged down to 358,500 from 359,750.

2) Consumers ...

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TAGS:
recession
economy

Inflation May Be Worse Than Many Think

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Inflation expectations for the next decade have risen from 2.23 percent to 2.48 percent today, at least as implied by 10-year treasury inflation-protected securities. Not too bad given what oil and the dollar are doing. But things may actually be far worse than that. The inflation watchers over at ...

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TAGS:
economy
inflation

Worrisome Productivity Numbers

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From 1998 through 2004, U.S. worker productivity rose by a red-hot 2.9 percent, 2.8 percent, 2.9 percent, 2.5 percent, 4.1 percent, 3.7 percent, and 2.8 percent. But in the past three years, it has risen by just 1.9 percent, 1.0 percent, and 1.8 percent—the final number out today from the Labor ...

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TAGS:
Department of Labor

PCs and Inflation

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Don't underestimate the amazing power of American innovation. This from the Vox economic research site:

One of the most significant new goods in the twentieth century was the personal computer (PC). The first successfully mass-produced PC was the Apple II. Released in 1977, it consisted of ...

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TAGS:
inflation
computers
prices
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