Wall Street Still Sees an Obama Presidency

Is this as good as it gets for John McCain? The latest from political analyst Alec Phillips at Goldman Sachs:

Recent polling indicates a tighter general election than many observers would have expected. This is largely because McCain has greater support in head-to-head polls against Obama than against Clinton in key swing states like Florida and Ohio. The general election may indeed be close, but it is likely that these polls will begin to change as the contest moves from a three-candidate race to a true head-to-head contest later this year.... These polls imply a close race at the moment, although Democratic performance may improve once the nomination is decided. Taking poll results for the states named above at face value and plugging in the 2004 election results into the rest, Obama would win 268 electoral votes to McCain's 270, while Clinton would win 289 to McCain's 249. Notwithstanding these implications, political prediction markets continue to imply a 60% probability that the Democratic candidate will win the election this fall.

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