Capital Commerce


May 2008


The Madness of Bill Gross

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For a guy who is a professional investor, Bill Gross doesn't seem to believe much in the power or efficacy of markets. In his always entertaining monthly note to clients, the Pimco bond manager—probably the world's most influential—lays out an elaborate theory about how U.S. government statistics ...

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TAGS:
investing
inflation

Doing the Recession Shuffle

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The pro-recession crowd keeps pushing back when the dark times began. First it was late 2007. Then early 2008. Now more and more it looks as if recession believers are going to have to push the start of the downturn until the second half of this year. Today's stronger-than-expected durable-goods ...

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TAGS:
recession
economy

6 Reasons Why Oil Is Ready to Drop

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I think the "oil is in a bubble" meme is gaining strength. Market strategist Ed Yardeni thinks the hysteria may be ready to wane. His reasons:

1) Russia is scrambling to cut taxes on its oil industry to boost investment in new fields and to reverse a looming decline in production.

2)

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TAGS:
oil
gas prices

Inflation Nation

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This analysis by JPMorgan Chase is really bad news:

Consumer sentiment dropped to a 28-year low in early May, and there is increasing evidence that surging short-term inflation expectations are spilling over to long-term inflation expectations. One-year inflation expectations increased to ...

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TAGS:
inflation
consumers

Economy's Weak, but That's It

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All your economics news in one fell swoop, courtesy of Action Economics:

Today's slew of U.S. reports were skewed toward the factory sector, and the figures—though dynamic—did little to change the overall outlook. Industrial production showed the concentrated weakness we expected in the ...

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TAGS:
economy
recession

The Recession That Wasn't

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Recession? Where? Looking back months from now, we may find that the economy grew 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, 1.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, and 2.5 percent (according to a model from Macroeconomic Advisers) in the second quarter. Now my buddy Barry Ritholtz over at ...

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TAGS:
recession
economy
GDP

Tracking Our Recession Obsession

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Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear on the state of the economy (via the Wall Street Journal): "I would be very surprised if the [National Bureau of Economic Research], looking back at this period, would date this as a recession.... There are even indications that revised ...

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TAGS:
economy
recession

So, What Is a Recession?

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Look, I know the economy is weak. But if it never has a down quarter, then it never went into a recession. Here is what Robert Hall, who heads the recession-dating committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research, said yesterday: "It seems unlikely that we would ever declare a peak date when ...

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TAGS:
recession
economy

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