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Hillary Clinton, Madame Vice President
Tweet Share on Facebook May 8, 2008 Comment (130)A Barack Obama-Hillary Clinton ticket is an idea that I have been promoting as a real political possibility—to much skepticism, I admit. But none other than my fellow Greek-American George Stephanopoulos also thinks it could happen: "I mean, first of all, would Senator Obama go for it? Can he get over the bitterness of this campaign? Can he be convinced that it's the strongest ticket? Third, of course, would Senator Clinton take it? I think if it was offered in the right way, yes."
I think a guy like Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia would be a logical pick—downscale appeal, a Vietnam vet, defense background as a Navy secretary under Ronald Reagan, from a swing state. Currently, the Intrade betting market gives "the field" the best odds of getting picked, at 35 percent. That means someone (Claire McCaskill? Ed Rendell? Colin Powell?) other than listed potential candidates Hillary, Webb, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Al Gore, Wes Clark, Mark Warner, Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Sam Nunn, Ted Strickland, Tom Daschle, Chris Dodd, Tom Vilsack, and John Kerry. Of that group, Hillary is in first with 18 percent, and Webb second at 11 percent.
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Tracking Our Recession Obsession
Tweet Share on Facebook May 8, 2008 CommentCouncil of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear on the state of the economy (via the Wall Street Journal): "I would be very surprised if the [National Bureau of Economic Research], looking back at this period, would date this as a recession.... There are even indications that revised first-quarter estimates would be slightly stronger than 0.6%. The optimists seem to have been closer to right on that than the pessimists."
And this economic nugget from today's data, as interpreted by the econ team at JPMorgan Chase:
Initial jobless claims declined to 365,000 in the week ending May 3 from 383,000 the prior week, and the four-week average edged up to 367,000 from 364,500. Jobless claims have been especially volatile in recent months, though looking through the noise claims have remained close to 375,000. While claims are elevated, it is comforting and somewhat surprising that they have only pierced the 400,000 level once this year.
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Fiscal Stimulus, Rebates, and the Economy
Tweet Share on Facebook May 8, 2008 Comment (1)How much will the fiscal stimulus package help the economy? The computer model over at Macroeconomic Advisers gives this answer:
The economic stimulus that we expect from these rebates is a key determinant of the GDP growth profile in our forecast. We assume that households (on average) spend about 40% of the rebates within several months of receiving them. This provides a very important boost to consumption growth through the middle of the year. With that boost, and the other (less important) aspects of the package, we expect the fiscal package to add about 2 percentage points to real GDP growth in both the second and third quarters.
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