Capital Commerce

CPI: The (Hillary) Clinton Price Index

May 15, 2008 RSS Feed Print

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Is the stock market voting for a continuation of the Obama-Hillary presidential brawl? Larry Kudlow has dubbed this the Clinton Price Index, meaning that Hillary's electoral fortunes are affecting the price of stock indexes under the theory that the longer the race goes on, the better the chance for a McCain victory and a continuation of low capital-gains-tax rates. It's a theory. The fine blog Redlegs Rant has followed up on this:

April 16: "...Obama also confirmed that he would consider raising the capital gains tax, which is currently at 15 percent, back to its previous Clinton-era high of 28 percent..."

April 22: Obama gets crushed in PA

April 23: Stocks rise

May 6: Obama wins big in NC

May 7: Stocks plunge

May 13: Obama gets crushed in WV

May 14: Stocks rise

DISCLAIMER: Correlation is not causation. But it looks as if investors (100 million-plus strong in this great country) might have a dog in this fight, no?

Tags:: 2008 presidential election,; stock market,; Hillary Clinton

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Just because we admire someone doesn't mean we will automatically agree with them. ,

Kelvin42 of GA 5:44AM October 23, 2009

Its extension into Eastern Europe was motivated by economic more than military reasons. ,

Coder26 of MD 6:13AM October 22, 2009

I know Kudlow's all over this "Hillary-Obama slugfest is good for the market" thing but let's face it - Hillary's toast. The nomination's Obama's.
My point - imprecise as it may be - is a little different. Every time Obama gets swamped by Hillary in a red state's Democrat primary, it indicates to me that he's going to have a hard time changing the map in November. If Obama doesn't win Mich and PA, he doesn't have a chance. Likewise if he doesn't win Ohio - unless he can turn red states blue elsewhere. You can cross WV off that list - probably KY too (we'll see next Tuesday).
It's not about Hillary - it's about November. I know what the Intrade market says - my gut tells me otherwise. McCain's going to win this thing or come damn close.

Jeff from Redlegs Rant of OH 3:32PM May 16, 2008

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