Doing the Recession Shuffle

The economy defies the bears and continues to grow.


The pro-recession crowd keeps pushing back when the dark times began. First it was late 2007. Then early 2008. Now more and more it looks as if recession believers are going to have to push the start of the downturn until the second half of this year. Today's stronger-than-expected durable-goods report for April is another sign that the economy continues to expand. This from Global Insight:

The bellwether indicator of capital equipment demand, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, was up 4.2% on the month after three straight declines. It is likely that much of this strength is coming from overseas, as the rest of the world is holding up much better than the U.S. domestic economy. The strength of global demand has greatly dampened the extent of the slowdown in manufacturing production, and in the light of today's orders numbers, it will continue to do so.

Me: There is every indication that the revised first-quarter gross domestic product number out tomorrow will be over 1 percent, and right now the 2Q number looks to be over 2 percent. Now remember that growth was 0.6 percent in 4Q. If the economy has been in recession since late 2007, it sure has been a weird one given that the data show the economy to actually be accelerating. The Un-Recession continues.