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Obama Will Tax More Than Just the 'Rich'
Tweet Share on Facebook June 26, 2008 Comment (8)Let's be clear: If Barack Obama is elected, everyone who has an investment will face higher taxes because Obama and an overwhelmingly Democratic Congress will raise the rate on capital gains. There is also a "hidden tax" that will come from the depressing effect on stock prices. (And does anyone think higher cap-gains rates are just what the housing market ordered?) But Stanford Group policy analyst Greg Valliere thinks income tax rates could be going up higher than expected and affect more than just the so-called rich (bold is mine):
If Obama wins, he probably will have tax legislation before Congress before the end of next winter. He will surely seek to abolish the Bush tax cuts for "the rich," loosely defined as those who make more than $250,000 per year. But with the budget deficit exploding, the definition of "rich" may be defined down to pay for Obama's spending priorities in areas such as health and the infrastructure. The top individual rate, now 36%, is scheduled to revert back to the old top rate of 39.6% at the end of 2010, but Obama probably would attempt to raise it more quickly. Some Democrats want to add a surcharge of 1 or 2 percentage points on top of 39.6% for individuals making more than $500,000. Taxing "the rich" is easy game for Democrats in this election cycle—since virtually all of these "rich" households are in reliably Democratic "blue" states in the Northeast or California.... Perhaps the biggest tax issue for the financial markets involves the capital gains and dividend rates.... If Obama wins, those rates are likely to wind up in the mid-20s, with an effective date that could come as early as some time next year.... With the Democrats determined to raise taxes (the Social Security payroll tax cap also would rise), there's a bit of good news: there's a strong consensus that the top corporate rate of 35% is too high; it probably will come down to 30 or 31%. And some middle class taxpayers may get relief on the Alternative Minimum Tax.
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Dude, Where's My Recession? The Series
Tweet Share on Facebook June 26, 2008 Comment (5)So it looks as if the economy was a bit stronger in the first quarter than first estimated, up 1 percent rather than 0.9 percent. The details of the revision also make it more likely that 2Q will be safely positive. In short, the economy grew during the final quarter of last year, the first quarter of this year, and very likely during the current quarter. Lousy growth, absolutely. But no recession despite a housing meltdown, credit crunch, and oil superspike. This is why I call the U.S. economy the Amazing American Growth Machine.
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Obama's Big-Government Energy Policy
Tweet Share on Facebook June 25, 2008 Comment (9)Corrected on 6/26/08: An earlier version of this post incorrectly reported the size of the prize in John McCain's Clean Car Challenge. It is $300 million.
So Barack Obama doesn't think much of John McCain's $300 million Clean Car Challenge, treating it as if it's some new reality show on the Discovery Channel masquerading as energy policy:
When John F. Kennedy decided that we were going to put a man on the moon, he didn't put a bounty out for some rocket scientist to win—he put the full resources of the United States government behind the project and called on the ingenuity and innovation of the American people—not just in the private sector but also in the public sector.
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Congress Ready for Homeowner Bailout
Tweet Share on Facebook June 25, 2008 Comment (3)Eventual passage of the $300 billion Dodd-Frank foreclosure bailout bill is as about as close to a cinch as you can find in Washington. Either Congress will come up with a compromise that the White House can live with, my sources tell me, or it will pass the bill over a Bush veto. All this by the end of summer, folks. The continued onslaught of negative housing news is only adding to the momentum. But as the econ team at First Trust Advisors points out, there is a silver lining in today's report on new-home sales:
Although there is more pain ahead in the housing sector, today's report on new-home sales shows the healing process is well underway. Although the pace of sales declined, the drop was in-line with expectations and above the March pace for the second month in a row. In other words, a bottom may be forming for sales. Meanwhile, total inventories are down 16.9% in the past year. More importantly, the number of unsold completed new homes—a key factor behind future construction and price changes—peaked in January at 199,000 and is now down to 182,000. The 17,000 decline in only four months is the fastest reduction in the past 20 years.
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Does the Weak Dollar Mock GDP Numbers?
Tweet Share on Facebook June 25, 2008 CommentMy pal John Tamny over at RealClearMarkets has a must-read commentary on the dollar and the U.S. economy. He doesn't think much of gross domestic product numbers that show the U.S. economy is growing if at the same time the dollar is plunging:
GDP growth was high under Presidents Reagan (32%) and Clinton (31%), and just the same it's been mostly strong under President George W. Bush. Still, no one would mistake the booming Reagan (S&P 500 +121%) and Clinton (S&P 500 +208%) economies for the one we've experienced during Bush's (S&P 500 +2%) tenure. GDP measures the total market value of all goods and services produced, and with the dollar impressively weak this decade, it's unsurprising that this might show up in a positive way given the bogus nature of GDP calculations.
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John McCain's $300 Million Car Challenge
Tweet Share on Facebook June 23, 2008 Comment (9)So John McCain is proposing a $300 million government prize to anyone who can develop a next-generation automobile battery that's way beyond current technology. Certainly the free-market part of my psyche thinks $100-plus-a-barrel oil should be all the motivation any car company needs to develop breakthrough battery technologies. Plus, there are already billions in venture capital dough going into clean-energy technology.
Yet I really like the idea of such innovation prizes, like the privately funded Ansari X Prize for space tourism. If government is going to get involved, this is the ideal way: Set the goal, set the prize (though maybe it should be like $1 billion), and then get out of the way, and let business and entrepreneurs innovate.
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Media to America: Disaster Seen as Catastrophe Looms
Tweet Share on Facebook June 23, 2008 Comment (25)"I know you're just a reporter, but you used to be a person, right?" is a quote from the film Deep Impact and immediately came to mind after I read this article from the Associated Press. (It actually took two people to write it.) The "article" made me weep for my chosen profession. The absolutely disgraceful lead:
Is everything spinning out of control? Midwestern levees are bursting. Polar bears are adrift. Gas prices are skyrocketing. Home values are abysmal. Air fares, college tuition and health care border on unaffordable. Wars without end rage in Iraq, Afghanistan and against terrorism. Horatio Alger, twist in your grave. The can-do, bootstrap approach embedded in the American psyche is under assault. Eroding it is a dour powerlessness that is chipping away at the country's sturdy conviction that destiny can be commanded with sheer courage and perseverance.
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Raise Interest Rates, and Make OPEC Cry
Tweet Share on Facebook June 23, 2008 Comment (2)I recently had dinner in Los Angeles (Westwood, to be exact) with one of the smartest guys I know when it comes to the commodity markets. "What's the deal with oil?" I asked. His answer: Blame the subprime crisis. That prompted the Fed to slash interest rates. That killed the dollar. And that pushed investors into dollar substitutes like gold and oil. Boost the dollar, and bring down oil prices. Maybe not to $50 a barrel—but certainly to under $100.
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A Big Idea for McCain on Taxes
Tweet Share on Facebook June 23, 2008 CommentRamesh Ponnuru writes thus in the Weekly Standard:
It may seem impossible for a tax reform to have all the qualities that [John] McCain should be looking for: one that simplifies the code, levies only two tax rates, and encourages growth, but also provides significant tax relief to the lower middle class and avoids widening the deficit. But there is a way out. A vastly expanded child tax credit, applicable against both income and payroll taxes, would reduce the tax burden quite a bit for lower-middle-class families. To promote growth, the reform could keep taxes on investment low while modestly reducing the top marginal tax rate. To take in as much money as the current tax code, meanwhile, this reformed, pro-family system would have to do two main things. First, it would eliminate or at least cap the deduction for state and local taxes. Second, its top rate, though lower than the current one, would apply to a lot more people.... In 1980, 1988, and 2000, Republicans won presidential elections in part by promising to tax a lot of middle-income voters significantly less than the Democrats would. If McCain wins this election without making such a promise, he will be the first Republican to do so in more than three decades. Or he can embrace a pro-family plan, and thereby go a long way to showing that he intends to reform our institutions to facilitate the pursuit of the American dream.
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Best of the Blogosphere: June 20, 2008
Tweet Share on Facebook June 20, 2008 Comment (29)1) Daniel Drezner on free trade:
Yes, globalization is responsible for some job losses and wage compression, but its contribution is pretty damn small. Obama—or his advisors—are being disingenuous when he says that jobs have left Michigan for China. Those jobs have disappeared into the ether, period. Technological innovation has yielded so much in the way of productivity gains that even though manufacturing jobs are shrinking in the United States, manufacturing output in this country has more than doubled since 1980. The same process has caused the global number of manufacturing jobs to shrink as well.
2) Mark Perry of Carpe Diem explores the link between compensation and productivity.
3) Kurt Brouwer of Fundmastery has a great chart showing the relationship between education and income.
4) John Tamny of RealClearMarkets explodes myths about Americans and debt.
5) Russell Roberts of Café Hayek weighs in on income inequality.













