I recently had dinner in Los Angeles (Westwood, to be exact) with one of the smartest guys I know when it comes to the commodity markets. "What's the deal with oil?" I asked. His answer: Blame the subprime crisis. That prompted the Fed to slash interest rates. That killed the dollar. And that pushed investors into dollar substitutes like gold and oil. Boost the dollar, and bring down oil prices. Maybe not to $50 a barrel—but certainly to under $100.