Economic Model Predicts an Obama Landslide

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After the popular vote was counted for 2000...the result showed Al Gore won...ah but then 9-11 happened... no story there...
In 2004 the exit polls showed Kerry winning by 5% but in the middle of the night around 1:00am ...Bush won by 3%..MAGIC..
Let's hope the country marches on Washington if another election is stolen!
We all know that there are more democrats than republicans .. its just that our votes don't count as much.. the polls show that we do.. but then polls lie?

Marsha of TX 6:20PM July 25, 2008

McCain offers nothing and in his past voting record has DONE nothing worth noting as "leadership". In the reality based world the economic policies of the Bush Administration and the apparent embrace (95% VOTING record of supporting Bush)of these policies by McCain would GUARANTEE a Democratic victory . . . with any other Democratic candidate.
But the record shows too many would rather vote for someone they'd like to have beer with, rather than one who would help you earn enough to PAY for one . . .

Jess Wonderin of CA 4:52PM July 25, 2008

Let me guess, the 2 elections where the model (and the exit polls) didn't accurately predict the winner were 2000 and 2004.
Can you say "stolen elction"?

t-bone of NJ 1:26PM July 25, 2008

Don't forget to factor in election fraud. The Kerry camp was very complacent too.

JMarra of MO 9:05AM July 25, 2008

We have an economic situation we haven't seen in about 70 years and it's only going to be worse come November. People tend to blame the party in power (read GOP) for the problems. Can Obama fix anything? I personally don't think it can be fixed. It has to completely collapse first. But I surley don't want someone asscoiated with Phil Gramm picking up the pieces.

mikefromtexas of 3:51AM July 25, 2008

One thousand percent correct, Patrick, the GOP does own the oil price issue from getting our troops killed for oil in a war based on lies to profiteering on high oil prices and continued lies, the GOP owns the responsibility for our current economic crisis lock, stock, and (overpriced) barrel.
Seems like we'll be ending another Bush presidency with yet another bank bailout. I wonder how many Bushes will directly benefit from this one.

clichy of NY 2:42AM July 25, 2008

The model takes into account real income growth and the unemployment rate besides energy prices. For the large majority of Americans real income growth over the past eight years has been modest at best, and if current unemployment was calculated using the same metrics used during the Carter administration it would top 10%. Neither of these figures favor the GOP. As for the issue of oil prices, there are millions of Americans who would laugh at the notion of the GOP "owning" that issue, in spite of what Fox News and Rush would have you believe.
And while the model does not take into account the dramatic decline in housing values for large portions of the country and the attendant spike in foreclosures from California to Colorado to Michigan to Florida, you can be assured that the people affected are not exactly thrilled with the current situation.
None of this guarantees that Obama will win, but insofar as the economic issues are concerned, they are clearly not in McCain's favor.
Unless you agree with Phil Gramm that Americans are "whiners" that is.

bluestatedon of MI 12:12PM July 24, 2008

Sorry Patrick, but these models generally predict election results very well. What they don't include this year, however, is the candidate's race. It is unclear how much race will dampen Obama's support as political scientists have never been able to measure this as a variable before.

John Oliver of IL 12:15AM July 24, 2008

I agree that oil price will be leading issue but it looks like it has peaked amid much political attention. GOP owns this issue if McCain doesn't blow it (he might). I don't think you'll see either of these figures come to pass there by closing that gap by 5.2% and rendering it a coin toss.

PATRICK J. DUGGAN of IL 3:40PM July 23, 2008