The 2009 Economy

One forecasting firm thinks we'll be much happier a year from now.

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Have a gander at this bit of economic analysis from Macroeconomic Advisers (bold is mine):

The economic outlook for the second half is weak, at best. We expect domestic final demand to shrink at nearly a 1% pace over the second half and GDP growth to be barely positive, on average, over that period. The weakness in growth will push the unemployment rate up to 6¼% by the first quarter of 2009...Despite the weakness over the second half, we continue to believe that a sustained recovery will emerge next year. In particular, we expect growth to rebound to a 3% pace in the second half of 2009 and to above 3% in 2010...The considerable slack that emerges and the flattening-out of the dollar and energy prices that we anticipate create a very benign environment for inflation, allowing headline and core PCE inflation to fall all the way to 1.5% by the end of the forecast horizon.... The combination of falling headline inflation and weak economic growth should be sufficient to keep the Federal Reserve from tightening policy this year. However, once growth appears to turn the corner, the Committee will be quick to begin raising rates. We continue to expect the first tightening to take place in March 2009 and project the federal funds rate to reach 3½% by the end of that year.

Me: The flaw in this analysis is that it completely ignores possible huge tax hikes and huge budget deficits. Both would be bad for growth.