The head counters on Capitol Hill that I talk to keep telling me that the Paulson Plan will get passed, certainly by midweek next week. But I sense another dynamic going on, much like what we saw with the doomed 2005 nomination of Harriet Miers for the Supreme Court. With both the Miers Plan and the Paulson Plan, we saw a surprise announcement from the White House, followed by a furious negative reaction from the blogosphere that eventually spread to Congress. (Just ask Cheney how that meeting with GOP House members yesterday went. Ouch!) Of course, Miers didn't have the Treasury secretary, Federal Reserve chairman, and the global financial market watching her back. But to quote Newt Gingich, "If the bill doesn't pass by Friday, it never will," as people learn more about it. And if John McCain comes out against the bill, all bets are off. By the way, the Intrade betting market currently gives the bailout an 80 percent chance of passage. But if GOP support collapses, so will the Paulson Plan.
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