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Economist: 'Bradley Effect' Could Doom Obama

November 3, 2008 RSS Feed Print

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This, from the VoxEU site: "Should Barack Obama worry about the Bradley effect? The much-discussed effect refers to observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes, in which African-American candidates receive a smaller vote share than would be predicted using opinion polls. In this column, I study US congressional and gubernatorial contests from 1998 to 2006 – black candidates on average receive a 2-3% lower share of the two-party vote than non-black candidates with similar numbers in the polls. If an effect of a similar size would appear in the current presidential race, then it would lower Obama’s probability of winning from 85% to 53%."

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Just for giggles, do a search in US News & WR on "james Pethokoukis." Just peruse the headlines of some of his articles over the past few months. Notice how wrong this guy has been. Here is one example (of MANY): "Pop - Why the Obama Bubble has Collapsed," Sept. 11th, 2008. Why is a reputable magazine like this wasting its space on such a hack? As consumers of information, I suggest that in the future you should move on past Mr. Pethokoukis' "opinions" and seek out information that is worthy of your time.

Charles Boyle of PA 9:36AM November 06, 2008

As much as some pundits would like us to believe differently, we've come a long way from the days of Mayor Tom Bradley. First of all, it was still a novelty for Blacks to run for either city or state wide-office. Even though we still have not had that many Black Governors or Black officials on the national scene, most people are use to and somewhat comfortable with them in office. In Virgina, Pennsylvania and Kentucky, during the primaries we saw some evidence of strongholds of racism that still pose some resistance to Black candidates, but they are becoming more and more isolated. The Obama effect will override any remnants of the Bradley effect, by the shear numbers of young people, first time voters, Blacks, under 40, and educated whites that appear to be in the Obama column. We must remember that those who are considered responsible for the Bradley Effect are older, white and uneducated and they are a diminishing demographic.

Gary In Pismo Beach of CA 10:30AM November 04, 2008

A win at the polls is not a win at the elections.
The Bradley effect is real. I'd be particularly concerned in these elections, since Obama has attorneys and sheriffs fighting for "so-called truth" on his side, at least in MO, making charges against anybody that speaks against him as a candidate. I hope that, if he wins, this does not continue after the elections: it would make everybody scared of expressing their opinions. Not very American.

lisa of FL 5:59AM November 04, 2008

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