The Chances of a Depression

Hey, they're about as good as Bin Laden being captured.

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Now according to Intrade, there is a 12.9 percent chance the economy will tumble into a depression next year, defined as a cumulative GDP drop of 10 percent or more over four consecutive quarters. To put that into some perspective, the betting markets think there is a 13.7 percent chance of Osama Bin Laden being captured or killed by next summer, an 11.6 percent chance of Sarah Palin being the GOP nominee in 2012, and a 13 percent chance of the 2016 Summer Olympic Games being held in South America. So there you go.

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