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The Chances of a Depression

November 18, 2008 RSS Feed Print

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Now according to Intrade, there is a 12.9 percent chance the economy will tumble into a depression next year, defined as a cumulative GDP drop of 10 percent or more over four consecutive quarters. To put that into some perspective, the betting markets think there is a 13.7 percent chance of Osama Bin Laden being captured or killed by next summer, an 11.6 percent chance of Sarah Palin being the GOP nominee in 2012, and a 13 percent chance of the 2016 Summer Olympic Games being held in South America. So there you go.

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11-19-2008 I feel that the USA is already bankrupt and the only way to pay for all of this is to crank up the printing presses and to tax the middle class. Can you say inflation? I would not be amazed if there are runs on some banks by the end of April 2009. Too many politicians have forgotten whose money they are spending and act as though all of our money is theirs. I fear that Obama will nationalize your 401k retirement accounts to help pay for this financial mess the US is in. I live in third world country as I cannot afford to live in the USA. While I was born in Oregon and raised in Washington I have to retire abroad in order to live comfortably. What does that say about the economy of the US. I am finding more and more retiring Americans are becoming my neighbors in this country where i have retired. My brother has also join me here when he retired for the same reasons I did. Hang on folks you are about to have a bumpy ride. RLB

Robert Busenbark 6:33AM November 19, 2008

I don`t think taking about a depression is something to joke about.The U.S. is Bankrupt ,but no one will admit it.Not funny.

Don Wiggins of ID 2:29AM November 19, 2008

The Chances of a Depression

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