Before we all start loading up on Elmo Live! toys and Wii Fit games, might be a good time for an economic reality check. As Bruce Kasman of JP Morgan gloomily sees things:
"Economic reports continue to beat the drum of a deep and synchronized global downturn. Industrial activity readings are pointing towards the first double-digit annualized decline in global manufacturing output since the mid-1970s. And this week’s key national November business surveys—including a collapse in Germany’s Ifo and Japan’s Shoku Chukin—should combine with a further slide in the US ISM survey next week to reinforce the message that business confidence is approaching a three-decade low as the quarter ends. With indicators pointing to an intensifying global adjustment in employment and business spending, our forecast of the deepest four-quarter GDP slide in the developed world since WWII appears to be on track."