Dude, Where's My Recession?: The Ritholtz Bet

Back in May, Barry "Big Picture" Ritholtz and I made a bet about the chances of a recession. If either 1Q or 2Q of this year were declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research to be part of a recession, he would win. If not, I would win. Well, the NBER recently declared that the recession started in December of 2007. That means 1Q and 2Q are included. So over the weekend, I bought him, via Amazon,  the Blue-ray, 5-disc version of Blade Runner, a movie we both love. Congratulations, Barry.

But let me note that since WWII, the NBER had never called a downturn that included back-to-back quarters of positive GDP growth. Until now. The economy expanded at a 0.87 percent pace in the first quarter and 2.83 percent in the second quarter. Thanks for nothing, Jimmy Poterba! Let me also add that without the oil price superspike and the Lehman debacle, especially, the economy may well have skirted a downturn.So the way I see things, Paulson, Bernanke and Geithner owe me a hundo! From NBER's Poterba, I will settle for a personal apology. Now ... Dude, Where's My Depression!