Study: Potential Big 3 Job Losses Vastly Overblown

I have been waiting for this one. Big Three bailout proponents claim that bankruptcy by the automakers could lead to a loss of 3 million jobs. Not so, says Jeffery Werling, a University of Maryland economist. This from a U. of M. press release:

The impact of a Big-3 bankruptcy and restructuring would be severe, but frequently-quoted job loss figures are misleading and overstated, according to a new projection by the University of Maryland's Inforum economic research unit. In the worse case scenario, peak job dislocation from restructuring would be half of the 3 million commonly cited in the media. "There will be plenty of economic pain from the inevitable restructuring of the U.S. auto industry, but the figures that are usually discussed are highly unrealistic," says University of Maryland economist Jeffrey Werling. "If 100 percent of the manufacturing capacity of the Big Three totally disappeared in a puff of smoke, about three million jobs could indeed be eliminated," he says. "However, we think that at most 40 percent of the Detroit-3 auto manufacturing capacity would be lost, and that this would mean a peak loss of 1.5 million jobs. But we think the more likely figure is just under a million."