OK, so the WSJ has an interview with Russian foreign policy expert and former KGB analyst Igor Panarin about his prediction that the United States will disintegrate:
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
"California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
Me: First of all, I am pretty sure this the plot of the 1984 classic film Red Dawn. Second, any political disintegration of America and accompanying economic chaos would drag Russia and China right along with it. Third, Russia, with its aging society, falling longevity rates, commodity economy and ethnic tensions, is more likely to fall apart. Fourth, this completely ridiculous.