Will Obama be the 2012 Democratic Nominee?

It's been a rough start for President Obama, and already the online betting markets have taken notice. According to Intrade, there is an 85 percent chance he will be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2012, down from 92 percent a few weeks ago. To put that number in some perspective, it is about the same chance, according to Intrade, of "Slumdog Millionaire" getting Betting Picture at the Academy Awards --  but less than Heath Ledge winning Best Supporting Actor for "The Dark Knight."

Seriously: Geithner tarnished, Daschle out and the stimulus package apparently dead in the Senate. As to the last point, Sean West of the Eurasia Group, a risk analysis firm, makes a pretty good point:

President Obama's team rode into town knowing that it needed a massive stimulus package to stabilize demand. While the administration outlined general principles, from the start it seemed far more concerned with quick enactment and an impressive headline dollar value than it did with specific details. Indeed, the quickest way to steamroll passage through an assertive Congress is to give Congress control over details. Thus, Obama remained committed only to a broad outline-and didn't bat an eye when even his ally, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), attacked Obama's signature $3,000 job creation tax credit, which eventually fell out of the package. While Obama has focused on face time and photo opportunities with Congress, he has done little to affect legislative detail, giving Congressional Democrats room to push forward a cornucopia of initiatives that they have wanted for years.