Bernanke: 'Reasonable' Chance of 2010 Recovery

The Fed chairman gives his views on the economy.

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This is the money graf in Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's House testimony today (bold is mine):

This outlook for economic activity is subject to considerable uncertainty, and I believe that, overall, the downside risks probably outweigh those on the upside.  One risk arises from the global nature of the slowdown, which could adversely affect U.S. exports and financial conditions to an even greater degree than currently expected.  Another risk derives from the destructive power of the so-called adverse feedback loop, in which weakening economic and financial conditions become mutually reinforcing.  To break the adverse feedback loop, it is essential that we continue to complement fiscal stimulus with strong government action to stabilize financial institutions and financial markets.  If actions taken by the Administration, the Congress, and the Federal Reserve are successful in restoring some measure of financial stability--and only if that is the case, in my view--there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery.  If financial conditions improve, the economy will be increasingly supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus, the salutary effects of the steep decline in energy prices since last summer, and the better alignment of business inventories and final sales, as well as the increased availability of credit.

Me:  Let's recall that we have not had a downturn longer than 16 months since the Great Depression, at least as the National Bureau of Economic Research dates things. So even this optimistic scenario, as Bernanke means it,  is pretty gloomy.

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