The Odds of a Depression? 40 Percent

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Jeaccusia of AL 9:48PM April 07, 2010

that contract ticks if ONE QUARTER does an annualized -10%, so Q1 of -2.5% will trigger it. Please amend accordingly.

alex 1:07PM March 09, 2009

I have understood that a depression, in addition to being defined as a -10% decline in GDP can also be defined as a recession that lasts at least 36 months. This seems a more likley senario - like the Japanese experience.

Bruce of NM 4:18PM March 08, 2009

Maybe I'm not able to get it right, but it seems intrade, today march 08, is giving a 86.8 % chance of - 10 % or worst.

Paolo 6:25AM March 08, 2009

The Bush Bash ritual may feel good..but the problem is the State. Further centralization of power to DC is both the cause of the recession and the reason it is going to get a lot worse from here. Only when Obama gets the balls to realize that the State is the problem and never the solution (good luck with that), will we recover.

MPH of NY 6:08PM March 06, 2009

The debt isn't what's causing this recession, but Bush's throwing money away on a needless war and the republican concept that government shouldn't be doing anything, is.
The government should have been protecting the American people from ALL enemies, foreign and DOMESTIC. We don't allow producers of food products to lie about the product's contents or permit them to make food unsafe to consume, so why should banks and real estate companies be allowed to do that very thing with their "products"?
Answer: they shouldn't. They are con men and should be charged with crimes.

David of CA 12:58PM March 06, 2009

Before Obama was in office....One Trillion in debt.
Three weeks after Obama in office....Three Trillion in debt...and MORE coming.
And you say it is not Obama's fault?!?!?
Would you like to buy some good used lotto tickets...Cheap!

Independent Man of MT 6:17AM March 06, 2009

It's worth noting that the 3% fall during the 1981-82 recession came on the heels of the 1970s stagflation, while this current banker's depression is coming on the heels of 20+ years of nearly uninterrupted growth, at times spectacular growth. A 10% drop from mid-2008 GDP would still leave the American per capita real GDP higher than 1981. Much higher. The real danger isn't a 10% drop in GDP. It's a new crop of AARP-socialists if the stock market doesn't recover before the boomers retire in earnest. If the "Me Generation" insist on maintaining their lavish lifestyles on Social Security, we are well and truly screwed.

Tom Hanna of MO 1:17AM March 06, 2009

Sheesh, these folks are hard on you! I've been an Obama supporter since most knew who he was, however, what we are experiencing far transcends elections, budgets and even global politics. We are heading into the down portion of a long "Kondratieff" cycle. Like post-Tulip mania,potato famine, etc. I am hoping we can soften the blow, but this is not an ordinary recession. Doesn't matter what anyone's politics are anymore.

Elf Princess of Laguna Beach of CA 6:53PM March 05, 2009

Patrick J DUH, Pervayor of right wing talking points, Must suck to be you.To go thru life so stuck on Hannity and the drug addict for your talking points and blinded by your bigotry, you feel the need to spew garbage on a blog. Hey moron, Tell me who Phil Gramm is, and what he might have done to help cause this problem. You come back here with the right answer and you will have rehabilitated your credibility. right now you have Zero credibility.you spew nonsense.You are so uninformed and uneducated. Bush never wanted any reform. Why do you lie. Why do you hate so much? You got problems. Grow Up!

jeffo of MN 12:37PM March 05, 2009