Let me sum up the attitudes of the many investors I talk to: "I thought with Obama we were getting the third Clinton term. Instead, we got Pelosi's first." Of course, that is an unofficial sample. But here are some of the big gripes by these folks: 1) the stimulus package wasn't stimulative enough, 2) the Geithner bailout plan is still a cipher, and 3) the Obama budget is full of big deficits and tax increases. But I recently got an email by a well known blogger and markets analyst who takes the other side:
I find the forces of the 14 trillion us economy and the markets within it, or the even greater global economy are actually driven by supply and demand. (Yes, this is a radical concept ) The short term approval ratings of an outgoing or incoming President are nearly entirely irrelevant Consider these data points -- what do you think their impact on the markets are?
1) This is the first quarter in the history of the S&P500 to have ZERO EARNINGS;The ongoing drip drip drip of never ending bailouts — with taxpayers funding its costs — is pressuring prices;
2) The worst recession in many generations started over a year ago, and shows no signs of ending anytime soon;
3)The market is tanking is due to the lack of nationalization — we’d better off getting it done sooner rather than late -- as these stocks work their ways down to zero.
4) The overall market trend has been down (relentlessly so) for the past 18 months;
5) The overstretched consumer has retrenched and is now in savings mode;
6) The US deficits are horrific — and are only going to get worse;
7) Consumer sentiment is so bad its spilling over to everything else.
8) The leadership of corporate America has been shown to be so inept and incompetent that potential buyers of these businesses are marking them down to reflect this;
Me: Yet the "neverending bailouts," and "nationalization" and "US deficits" and "consumer sentiment" issues are all related to Washington in one way or the other. Global markets are looking to American for leadership and so far we have been found lacking.

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bluehill of AL 3:00PM February 21, 2012
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rs of AL 5:54PM April 08, 2009