Nouriel Roubini and a Defense of Optimism

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Optimism is human nature (e.g., playing the lottery), but it isn't objective.

Luther of IL 8:22PM April 08, 2009

Roubini predicted imminent disaster since *at least* 2005. That means if recovery happens by 2011, anyone predicting imminent recovery today will be just as "right" as Roubini. That's why I predicted retail sales less autos would lead the way out of this slump (four days ahead of the February figures). Do I get to hang out with supermodels at Manhattan cocktail parties now?
Roubini is the economic equivalent of a fortune teller, a modern day Cagliostro trading on his "predictions" for glitz and glamour.

Tom Hanna of MO 3:36PM April 08, 2009

If you are a careful reader of Roubini you will come to understand he is no perma bear. Rather he is a skeptic and an empiricist. As he says, when the data
supports a more optimistic outlook he will be among the first to point it out (and I as a reader of his website will take serious note).
I also have a deep respect for Barnett - - as a broad-brush, future thinking analyst
who is careful to avoid the myopic view common to the media. He does not predict events but instead sketches out larger historical trends. I wouldn't look to him to call
or predict anything short term - - much less anything as quixotic as our economy. But I think he gets the big stuff right.
Lastly, if you want to think critically, read and re-read Nassim Taleb and become your own man.

Steve Rank of CA 2:10PM April 08, 2009

If you are a careful reader of Roubini you will come to understand he is no perma bear. Rather he is a skeptic and an empiricist. As he says, when the data
supports a more optimistic outlook he will be among the first to point it out (and I as a reader of his website will take serious note).
I also have a deep respect for Barnett - - as a broad-brush, future thinking analyst
who is careful to avoid the myopic view common to the media. He does not predict events but instead sketches out larger historical trends. I wouldn't look to him to call
or predict anything short term - - much less anything as quixotic as our economy. But I think he gets the big stuff right.
Lastly, if you want to think critically, read and re-read Nassim Taleb and become your own man.

Steve Rank of CA 2:10PM April 08, 2009

If you are a careful reader of Roubini you will come to understand he is no perma bear. Rather he is a skeptic and an empiricist. As he says, when the data
supports a more optimistic outlook he will be among the first to point it out (and I as a reader of his website will take serious note).
I also have a deep respect for Barnett - - as a broad-brush, future thinking analyst
who is careful to avoid the myopic view common to the media. He does not predict events but instead sketches out larger historical trends. I wouldn't look to him to call
or predict anything short term - - much less anything as quixotic as our economy. But I think he gets the big stuff right.
Lastly, if you want to think critically, read and re-read Nassim Taleb and become your own man.

Steve Rank of CA 2:09PM April 08, 2009