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Unemployment, Democrats and the 2010 Election

April 10, 2009 RSS Feed Print

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The WSJ just caught up to something I have been writing about for months:

Just 12% of the economists expect the unemployment rate to fall some time this year. More than a third of respondents expect the jobless rate to peak in the first half of 2010, while about half don't see unemployment declining until the second half of 2010. ... The economists' forecasts indicate that the peak in the unemployment rate is likely to coincide with the midterm elections -- possibly bad news for Democrats. Even if the economy is growing, Americans still will be feeling the effects of the recession and could blame the incumbent. For example, when George H.W. Bush lost the presidency in 1992, the economy had been out of a recession for more than a year, but the unemployment rate didn't peak until June, and there was slow growth through the election.

Me: Obama has a deep reservoir of goodwill with voters. But do congressional Democrats? By all rights, 2010 should be at least another 198 when the Republicans lost 27 seats in the House in the midterm elections. High-tech gerrymandering will help the Dems hold seats, but it just be a tough year nonetheless.

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Has Wall street recovered? Over-recovered? Is anything trickling down? or is that recovering money staying put with the wealthy? Instead of trickle down, the growth is lateral. . . . We need a bold recovery plan for working class/lower middle-class people. Create jobs that are meaningful. Do something, Obama. Don't just sit there and think, think, and over think. You can still do something worthwhile with the rest of your one term. . . . Oh, and by the way, aren't you bringing the troops home in June? It's June 19th.

Rose of OH 10:44PM June 18, 2010

In October 2006 the unemployment rate was 4.4% with a downward trend if any change at all. The next month we know of a change that did take place. The US Senate, the US House, the governorships, the state senates, and the state houses ALL experienced a change in majority from one party to another. This change was in the same direction for all 5 bodies. Thirteen months later a recession began. The unemployment rate is now 10.2%. It appears a change took place in 2006 which correlates with a worsening economy. The 2008 election was more of the same change but in the White House. The recent House vote on health care coverage was also more of the same change. Given the correlation between these changes and the economy, we must ask 'Is this the change we want?'

DawnG of TX 8:38AM November 08, 2009