The WSJ just caught up to something I have been writing about for months:
Just 12% of the economists expect the unemployment rate to fall some time this year. More than a third of respondents expect the jobless rate to peak in the first half of 2010, while about half don't see unemployment declining until the second half of 2010. ... The economists' forecasts indicate that the peak in the unemployment rate is likely to coincide with the midterm elections -- possibly bad news for Democrats. Even if the economy is growing, Americans still will be feeling the effects of the recession and could blame the incumbent. For example, when George H.W. Bush lost the presidency in 1992, the economy had been out of a recession for more than a year, but the unemployment rate didn't peak until June, and there was slow growth through the election.
Me: Obama has a deep reservoir of goodwill with voters. But do congressional Democrats? By all rights, 2010 should be at least another 198 when the Republicans lost 27 seats in the House in the midterm elections. High-tech gerrymandering will help the Dems hold seats, but it just be a tough year nonetheless.