Merchants Predict Blu-ray Will Overtake DVDs

Group says high-def disks will outsell predecessor by 2012; some analysts say "no way."

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Still more on Blu-ray's future: The next-generation disks will surpass DVDs in sales by 2012, says the Entertainment Merchants Association. That's about as optimistic a prediction as is out there for Blu-ray, which faces stiff competition from traditional DVDs and Internet downloads.

Maybe the merchants association has to be optimistic. Its board is dominated by retailers who sell disks. Another analysis is less rosy, predicting that consumers will still buy twice as many DVDs as Blu-ray disks in 2012.

Blu-ray "will never achieve the mammoth numbers that DVD achieved in its heyday," write the analysts at Digital Tech Consulting.