Blu-ray should overcome a key hurdle by rapidly stealing market share from standard DVDs, says a new report. But overall, disk sales won't be growing as Blu-ray sales will barely offset falling sales in standard DVDs, says Futuresource Consulting.
The market for physical disks will remain flat through 2012. The growth for Hollywood studios will come from digital sales, either across the Internet or to mobile players.
Blu-ray will triple disk sales in the United States to 80 million this year. That's after tripling sales in 2008 to 24 million disks. " “In the USA, BD has moved from early adopter phase through to early majority," says Futuresource analyst Mai Hoang.
Blu-ray will steal market share against standard DVDs, which had been a key question for the format's future. By 2012, Blu-ray will sell just about as many disks as standard DVD. That's up from just 8 percent of unit sales this year.
Says Futuresource: "Blu-ray is here to stay, with a lucrative roadmap stretching out for at least the next five to ten years."
Also by 2012, however, digital downloads will have risen to 12 percent of sales. Mobile video will account for another 3 percent. And those two slices will be growing, unlike disks.