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The Biggest Myth of the Midterms
Tweet Share on Facebook October 29, 2010 Comment (7)You've probably heard: The Obama administration is trying to drive business out of business.
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5 Reasons Electric Cars Will Disappoint
Tweet Share on Facebook October 28, 2010 Comment (59)They're cool. That's for sure.
The Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt could turn out to be the most innovative mass-produced cars in a century. By taking some or all of their power from a household electrical outlet, they offer the first real glimpse of transportation that doesn't rely on petroleum—and could even crest the magical 100-miles-per-gallon threshold, once the official electricity-to-gasoline conversions are complete. Even better, the two electrics offer something new without the ugly packaging that has doomed futuremobiles in the past. They're cute, actually.
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Who's Gained And Lost Under Obama, So Far
Tweet Share on Facebook October 26, 2010 Comment (156)If you've got a job, chances are you're better off than you were two years ago, when Americans elected Barack Obama president. But that's not likely to be the message voters convey in the upcoming midterm elections.
[See 12 ways to stop America's decline.]
The Democrats who control the White House and Congress are poised for a historic smackdown in the midterms, with polls suggesting that Republicans will gain control of the House and possibly the Senate. There's one big reason: the economy. The unemployment rate was 6.9 percent when Obama got elected. It's 9.6 percent now. America has lost nearly 5 million jobs over the last two years. The economy is supposedly recovering, yet the huge stimulus plan from 2009 hasn't accomplished what Democrats said it would. Many Americans worry that prosperity is gone forever.
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How Government Gridlock Would Harm the Economy
Tweet Share on Facebook October 25, 2010 Comment (12)Relief, at last.
That's the view of many business leaders, who feel that a highly anticipated Republican triumph in the midterm elections will unchain the economy and make life easier for their firms. President Obama and his Democratic allies in Congress have dominated the Washington agenda for the past two years, using their majorities to pass healthcare reform, financial reform, and other measures that raised costs and regulatory burdens on businesses. There could be more of that in the future, as the need for new taxes, to help pay down the national debt, seems likely to hit businesses hard. So if Republicans seize one or both houses of Congress in the midterms, they'll have the power, theoretically, to limit government involvement in the economy and promote "pro-business" policies.
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5 Campaign Fibs About the Economy
Tweet Share on Facebook October 22, 2010 Comment (25)Maybe voters really do care about Aqua Buddha, witchcraft, and roughed-up reporters. But the main thing on people's minds when they vote on November 2 will be scarce jobs, the weak economy, and a vanishing sense of prosperity. And as usual, it's impossible to tell what's true and what's not by listening to politicians. Here are five falsehoods being perpetrated by both parties:
The stimulus plan didn't work. Every Republican candidate got the memo: Campaigning against the $814 billion Recovery Act passed in February 2009 is a winner. When the Democrat-controlled Congress passed the stimulus plan, the unemployment rate was 8.2 percent. On Election Day, it will be 9.6 percent. Polls show that only about one-third of likely voters think the stimulus plan helped the economy, while two-thirds think it did nothing or caused harm. The phrase "failed stimulus" is among the top GOP talking points, and it's a reliable rallying cry in the campaigns.
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How the Foreclosure Fiasco Threatens the Economy
Tweet Share on Facebook October 20, 2010 Comment (2)It might seem like a respite for struggling homeowners, but the sudden snags and slowdowns in thousands of foreclosure proceedings could prolong the housing bust well beyond its fifth year—and spell deep trouble for the broader economy.
[See how to plan for a double-dip recession.]
Like the housing bust itself, the recent foreclosure mess arrived with little warning, and the main question now is whether it's blowing over or mushrooming into a much bigger problem. On the surface, the issue is paperwork. Problems with flawed affidavits, improper shortcuts, and "robosigners"—bank officials who signed off on so many foreclosures that they couldn't possibly have reviewed all the details—have prompted big lenders like Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, GMAC Mortgage, and a few others to suspend foreclosure proceedings in many states while banks scour their records and regulators probe the issue.
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Video: Where the Next Recession Might Come From
Tweet Share on Facebook October 20, 2010 Comment (1)I appeared recently on ABC's Good Money program to talk about my story on what could cause the next recession. Here's the video:
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How Republicans, Too, Can Botch the Economy
Tweet Share on Facebook October 19, 2010 Comment (30)If Republicans sweep the midterm elections and take over Congress, as many expect, they'll have a chance to correct some of the mistakes the Obama administration made two years earlier.
Or repeat them.
[See how the middle class is shrinking.]
Politicians repeatedly misunderstand why voters send them to Washington. Every time there's a change in the status quo, the new blood concludes that the electorate has issued a "mandate" and demanded sweeping change. But voters don't always want sweeping change. Mostly, they want the things that aren't working right to work better. Still, the empowered newcomers seize the moment to institutionalize as much of their ideological agenda as possible. Time and again, the overreach turns off voters, and they seek change all over again.
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Why the Social Security Freeze Is Fair
Tweet Share on Facebook October 18, 2010 Comment (85)It sounds like an act of bureaucratic cruelty: Denying a modest cost-of-living increase to 58 million humble pensioners. Yet the freeze on Social Security payments for 2011 represents the responsible use of government money, and it highlights the paradoxical gap between people's perception of their well-being and the actual facts.
Although it makes President Obama and his fellow Democrats look heartless, the one-year freeze on payments recently announced by the Social Security Administration isn't anybody's decision. It's the result of a simple mathematical rule. The annual cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, is based on the rate of inflation as measured in the third quarter of every year. If inflation rises, Social Security payments rise by the same amount, so that the payments don't get eroded by inflation over time. The reason there's almost always a small boost in payments is that there's almost always inflation.
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What Could Cause the Next Recession
Tweet Share on Facebook October 15, 2010 Comment (7)If nothing terrible happens, the economy is likely to muddle along for a while, slowly gain momentum next year, and start to feel normal again by 2012 or 2013. By then, unemployment should be consistently improving, which will help revive the housing market and finally boost consumer spending.
[See 12 ways to stop America's decline.]
But with the economy growing at an anemic 2 percent or so, there's little margin for error, and the usual forces that bring a decisive end to recessions—like pent-up demand for housing or a spike in consumer spending—haven't materialized. That leaves the odds of a double-dip recession uncomfortably high. The Federal Reserve is sufficiently concerned that it's likely to start buying big pools of Treasury securities soon, the second dose of "quantitative easing" since 2009. If it works, injecting money into the economy will drive interest rates even lower, trigger a rally in stocks and bonds, boost exports by devaluing the dollar, and persuade companies to start spending nearly $2 trillion in cash that they're hoarding. But a year ago, most economists thought the Fed would be unwinding its extraordinary asset purchases by now, not adding to them. So predictions about the future of the economy carry less weight than ever.















