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If Steve Jobs Doesn't Return to Work, is Apple in Trouble?
Tweet Share on Facebook January 15, 2009 CommentThe New York Times is reporting that Steve Jobs doesn't have cancer, but it's not far-fetched to think he might not return to his post. Although he claims he'll still be making key decisions while he's out, the Times imagines a world without Jobs, "the obsessive visionary who involves himself in the smallest details of Apple's products and advertising":
It’s almost impossible to imagine the next chief executive of Apple having the same sort of autocratic and impulsive personality. That’s not the style of the people who work there. (There’s only one queen in the hive.) And what outsider coming into the top job of a company doing as well as Apple would have the guts to be so strong-willed and independent?
Silicon Alley Insider's weigh-in is that Apple is in good shape for now, but will eventually lose its lead if it doesn't swiftly put a plan together to move forward without Jobs (my take: it probably already has.)
Pundits will argue all day that Apple is more than Steve Jobs. Fine. But Steve Jobs is Apple. He might not write code or sit in chip fabs. But he makes the big, important decisions that make Apple products Apple products. New decision-makers will make choices Steve wouldn't make. Talent will leave. Etc.
It's always possible that there are some geniuses working at Apple that Steve Jobs is holding back -- that Apple could be better without Steve. But we -- and Apple shareholders, who sent the stock down 6% in after-hours trading following Apple's announcement -- are sticking with the idea that Apple without Steve is not as good as Apple with Steve.
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Steve Jobs' Leave of Absence: The Plot Thickens
Tweet Share on Facebook January 14, 2009 Comment (11)Steve Jobs told Apple employees today that he's taking a leave of absence through June to focus on his health issues. Here's the full text.
In his Apple Unvarnished column, Mitch Wagner compares Apple's handling of Jobs' health problems to the Clinton administration's handling of the Monica Lewinsky scandal. Apple has been making statements that were "literally true," Wagner says, "but ultimately misleading. That's going to have Apple watchers taking a microscope to every statement and action by Apple to find out what the company really means."
You can pretty much count on that. Bloggers haven't been buying what Apple's been selling. Heck, even endocronologists are skeptical. It seems that investors are, too: Apple's stock dropped 10 percent after the news broke.
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Tiffany's Rings are Shiny, but its Stock...Not so Much
Tweet Share on Facebook January 14, 2009 CommentAs Clusterstock points out today, Tiffany's fourth-quarter report is super important because it reflects the company's business in November and December--typically prime time for jewelry purchases (85 percent of its business comes from these two months.)
It seems like a given that the luxury market wouldn't fare well during the recession (even millionaires are getting the blues.) But analysts and executives were slow to adjust their expectations for that all-important fourth quarter, Clusterstock says. But here's something worth noting: the blogger perused a store in October and found that prices were up and sales were nowhere to be found.
After lowering its earnings guidance in November, Tif just lowered its annual forecast and reported that holiday sales were down 21 percent. The stock is down 2.7 percent so far today (trading around $21). That's a long way from the $48 it was trading at last summer.
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S&P: 4 Internet-Stock Predictions for 2009
Tweet Share on Facebook January 14, 2009 CommentStandard & Poor's just-released The Outlook newsletter contains a few interesting predictions about the market for Internet stocks in 2009:
1. Google will outperform the S&P in 2009.
Google's relationship with Apple will, due to growing competition between the companies, become increasingly uneasy...Nonetheless, even though we believe Apple is working on some kind of search technology that could help enhance iTunes, we don't see the company as a likely near-term entrant in the search wars. We believe Google will continue its successful push into the mobile segment, as a number of Android-enabled phones are released by the likes of Motorola, Sony Ericsson, and Samsung...although the precise impact will be unclear, we expect Google's financials to benefit significantly from the mid-2008 addition of CFO Patrick Pichette...As a result, we expect the stock to notably outperform the S&P in 2009.
2. Microsoft and Yahoo will finally bury the hatchet.
The companies..."will decide to join forces to better compete against Google, in our view. We don't expect Microsoft to try to buy Yahoo outright, and have mixed views about whether Microsoft will attempt to purchase Yahoo's search business, but at the least we see some kind of significant joint venture related to search. We think its development will help Yahoo shares, on which we have a buy recommendation, outperform the S&P in 2009.
3. A flight to quality in Internet advertising.
We foresee a flight to quality in Internet advertising and an associated consolidation of online advertising networks. Our strong sell opinion on ValueClick reflects the related challenges we see. Specific to ValueClick, we also have concerns about other offerings from its media units, and its e-commerce-related affiliate marketing and comparison shopping segments.
4. A lack of mult-billion-dollar transactions.
[But we] expect a number of sub-billion-dollar deals, as companies look to better focus and raise cash. We would not be surprised to see activity associated with Akamai Technologies, Infospace, Move, and RealNetworks.
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BlackRock's Bob Doll: Higher Oil Prices Could Signal Recovery
Tweet Share on Facebook January 12, 2009 Comment (4)Interesting take on oil prices from BlackRock's global CIO of equities, Bob Doll:
As a broader measure, we can also look to oil prices. After falling to a low in the mid $30 a barrel range in December, oil prices recently climbed back above $40 a barrel. While rising oil prices are generally regarded as a negative for stocks, we would argue that in the current environment, higher oil prices could be a sign of possible economic recovery. While the recent upturn is no doubt at least somewhat associated with tensions in the Middle East, oil prices do not bear close watching as a gague of overall economic health. On the same front, a renewed upturn in gold prices would present evidence of improving global economic health.
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Bill Miller's Legg Mason Opportunity Off to a Fast Start
Tweet Share on Facebook January 12, 2009 Comment (2)According to Morningstar, Bill Miller's Legg Mason Opportunity fund is the second-best performing diversified stock fund so far in 2009, with a 12 percent gain (the No. 1 fund is Foresight Value.)
That's significant because the Opportunity fund was the worst-performing fund in that category in 2008, suffering a horrifying 65 percent loss. Miller's famous Legg Mason Value Trust was the No. 3 worst performer for the year, with a 60 percent loss [click here for background on the fund's fall from grace.]
Stocks in Opportunity's portfolio are off to a fast start this year, with big gains in holdings like Red Hat, Expedia, Eastman Kodak, and NII Holdings. Legg Mason Value's first week and a half hasn't been too shabby either, with a 3 percent gain.
Perhaps 2009 is Miller's comeback year.
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Slumdog Millionaire: Does it Really Qualify as Low Budget?
Tweet Share on Facebook January 12, 2009 Comment (8)The headlines today are touting "Slumdog Millionaire," which won four honors at the Golden Globes last night, as a "low budget" movie. Sure, the film's $15 million budget--bankrolled by Warner Independent--is tiny in comparison to blockbuster productions like Titanic, which cost north of $280 million to make. But it's a lot more than the movies on this list of 25 indie movies made for less than $1 million. Here are a few:
El Mariachi, budget $7,000: Director Robert Rodriguez reportedly slashed costs by using a wheelchair instead of a dolly, using actors to do odd jobs on the set, and using desk lamps for lighting.
Clerks, budget $27,000: Kevin Smith is said to have financed this indie gem by selling part of his comic-book collection, credit cards, and filming the movie at a convenience store where he worked at the time.
The Blair Witch Project, budget: $22,000: We've all heard this story. The filmmakers used viral and Internet marketing and went on to gross a whopping $248 million worldwide.
Swingers, budget $250,000: Pretty impressive production at that cost.
Welcome to the Dollhouse, budget $800,000. This is one of my favorites.
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Mark Cuban Proclaims 3D Movies 'The LSD of 2009'
Tweet Share on Facebook January 9, 2009 CommentGadget blog Crunchgear interviewed Mark Cuban yesterday. Subject: 3D entertainment. Cuban, who co-owns Landmark Theaters and recently bought 9.4 percent of Carmike Theaters stock, talked up the future of 3D in cinema, in colorful terms:
"No matter what demographic you’re in, there’s a reason to go try something new, whether it’s 3D, whether it’s live broadcasts — it’s all interactive. Whether you’re sitting in front of a PC screen or a laptop or a digital projection in a theater, you’re still going to be able to text, you’re still going to have real-time discussion groups, you’re still going to be able to e-mail back and forth and interact. It’s just a different out-of-home experience...We’re not going to all just turn into little hermits and hibernate, it’s just more of an issue of giving people the right reason to get out of the house...You know, we did a live Mavs game this past March in 3D and I can just tell you, it’s crazy. It is crazy. It’s the LSD of 2009!"
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Burton and the Case of the Steamy Snowboards
Tweet Share on Facebook January 8, 2009 Comment (4)Despite the fact that it's headquartered in a progressive community in a liberal state, Vermont's Burton Snowboards has been taking a lot of heat lately for an exceptionally edgy line of snowboard designs.
A couple of Vermont ski resorts have banned employees from riding on the boards, which feature naked women. I can see that. The Girl Scouts Council of Vermont is in a tizzy, which also isn't surprising. But what is surprising to me is that the Burlington City Council considered asking Burton to withdraw the designs (they've since toned down the proposed resolution.)
I visited Burton's headquarters last summer for a profile on the company [read it here], along with the folks at Green Mountain Coffee Roasters for a separate story. Apart from an extremely laid-back work environment (flip-flop wearing employees bring their dogs to work and can head to the slopes instead of the office when it snows more than two feet), what struck me was how hard the Burton team strives to promote self expression. No two boards they produce are exactly alike, and to keep it fresh, the design department contracts with a lot of artists.
Some residents, like this woman quoted in a UPI story filed under "odd news," find the boards offensive because they say the designs objectify women: "When you really think about it, it's a young man standing on top of a naked woman's body."
Here's a response from Jake Carpenter, Burton's founder (courtesy of The Stowe Reporter):
"We...make boards for 18-year-old guys...The fact that these boards don’t appeal to some people is not a surprise. The important thing is that the vast majority of young, core riders appreciates the graphics and does not take them so seriously or perceive them as a threat to society...While I do understand that some people’s feelings are heartfelt, the local reaction to these graphics has been hurtful and out of line."
He concludes with:
"Honestly, I would rather relocate the company to another state than compromise our commitment to listen to core snowboarders."
Several days later, the Burlington Free Press ran a response from Jake's wife, Donna Burton:
"I’ll admit that when I was first told about the ‘Love’ board about a year ago, I was ready to go off. Pornographic images of women on a snowboard? I don’t think so. But then I saw them. Like the people walking into my kitchen, the images I saw were not what I expected. These are not X-rated images. These are vintage Playboy images from as far back as the 1970s. They are beautiful, kitschy, well-fed models; nothing obscene is revealed. These board graphics are retro, tongue-in-cheek and, in my opinion, harmless. They certainly have what real pornography always lacks - a sense of humor."
This Boston Globe story features a slideshow of the boards, but I'm not brave enough to view it at work.
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Macy's Store Closings, Walmart's Ho-Hum Sales
Tweet Share on Facebook January 8, 2009 Comment (3)The worst holiday shopping season in four decades has retailers in quite a bind.
Macy's lowered its earnings outlook this morning and reported that same-store sales in November and December dropped 7.5 percent. It also announced that it's closing 11 underperforming stores (here's the list). The good news is massive clearance sales, but if you live in certain areas of Nashville, Colorado Springs, and St. Louis, you'll have to find a new department store. The company says the closings are part of a "normal pruning process."
Investors took the news well, as the company's stock was up more than 2 percent at mid-morning.
Meanwhile, market watchers expected Wal-Mart to fare relatively well in December, as consumers traded down. The company posted a 1 percent sales gain, but that was less than the 2.8 increase expected by analysts. It also cut its fourth-quarter outlook.
Here's a list of more dismal retail-sales data, courtesy of The Big Picture.
In related news, Family Dollar's sees a growth opportunity in--get ready for this--food stamps. Nearly all of the company's 6,600 stores will accept them by the end of the year.
