In a note to clients this morning, BlackRock's global CIO of equities said he thinks there's a greater than 50 percent chance that November's low of 740 for the S&P 500 was the bottom of the bear market. Here's the case (bold is mine):
Central banks and governments around the world have remained exceptionally engaged in combating credit deflation, and the hopeful signs that are emerging suggest to us that the weakness in the global economy may be cresting, although a number of serious risks remain. At present, all eyes are focused on the stimulus bill being debated in Washington and on the Treasury Department. Should investors determine that the plans ultimately enacted will have an impact, a further rally could develop. We would caution, however, that for a long-term sustained uptrend to emerge, we would need to see clearer signs that the economy has regained its footing and, despite some of the improvements cited above, we still have quite a distance to go on that front.