The big events of the week--Easter, Passover, the March Madness championship, the start of baseball season, and Tiger Woods' shot at his fifth Masters win--may distract investors and make for a slow week in the markets. So says JPMorgan chief market strategist David Kelly in his outlook for the week.
A list of market data coming out this week:
- Tuesday: numbers on consumer credit
- Wednesday: mortgage applications
- Thursday: international trade data
- Thursday: chain-store sales
- Thursday: unemployment claims
First-quarter earnings season also kicks off, with Alcoa reporting on Tuesday and just three other S&P companies for the remainder of the week.
There's some hope for a continued rally (per Kelly):
"Earnings estimates are dismal with analysts collectively expecting a 37% year-over-year decline in operating earnings. However, with expectations so low, it shouldn’t be hard for many companies to match or beat them, particularly since the first-quarter slide in GDP growth looks to be “only” between -2% and -5%, compared to the -6.3% seen in the fourth quarter. Most important will be the reports by financial firms, as a continued flood of writedowns could easily stall out the recent stock market rally, while more stable bank earnings could give investors hope that this rebound, unlike so many over the last 18 months, is the real thing."