Robert Plant And Alison Krauss Win Shows Grammys Notice Trends A Few Decades Late

The classic work of rock journalism Hammer of the Gods has the unforgettable image (later parodied to great effect in the film Almost Famous) of Led Zeppelin singer Robert Plant, standing triumphantly on the balcony of a Los Angeles hotel room, proclaiming to the city, "I am a golden god!!"

No, he was not having a vision of February 8, 2009, the night that he and Alison Krauss won a Grammy in each category for which they were nominated, including Album of the Year for their joint album Raising Sand, and Record of the Year for "Please Read The Letter." Plant called himself a "golden god" back in the 70s when Led Zeppelin was recording some of the most influential rock music of the 20th century.

But you wouldn't know that if the Grammys were the arbiter of your tastes.  Led Zeppelin never won a single Grammy while they were actually releasing new music (they got a lifetime achievement award in 2005).

I'm not saying that his work with Alison Krauss doesn't deserve recognition.  Which album is more likely to still be heavily listened to twenty years from now--Raising Sand, or Led Zeppelin II? (Or III. Or IV. Or Physical Graffiti....). Plant is pretty clearly past his prime by several decades--yet only now does the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences think he's worth something.

The Grammys have fallen into a very common trap, one that also plagues many entrepreneurs. It's very easy to cash in on an influential trend or innovation after it's already taken hold. But it's much more difficult to catch the wave as it's gaining momentum and before it breaches.

The problem, of course, is that it's those people who are first on the scene who really receive the rewards. Social networking is the best example of that--of all the people who are going to cash in on that craze, it's Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook and Tom Anderson of Myspace who are going to make the millions, while all the followers struggle in a saturated market.

So using the above example, how do you not end up like the Grammys--looking out of touch and behind-the-times?

The most important lesson from this example is at some point you have to actively go against the conventional wisdom. The majority of rock critics in the 70s, such as those in Rolling Stone, panned Led Zeppelin's albums when they were first released. They accepted the highbrow opinion of the day that heavy metal was boorish and devoid of artistic merit. Today, many of those same publications are boosting Led Zeppelin's status as a legendary band--a couple of years ago, Rolling Stone put the band on the cover, dubbing them the "Heaviest Band of All Time."

That doesn't mean you should latch onto whatever currently unpopular trend you can find. Nor should you stop listening to criticism. But at some point, if you want to create the next big thing, you have to stop listening to the conventional wisdom and go with your instinct.