The Most (and Least) Risky Home Price Markets

Report finds homes in California and Florida at most significant risk of further price declines.

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PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. recently released its U.S. Market Risk Index for the summer of 2008. The index ranks the 50 biggest metro areas in the United States by the likelihood that home values will be lower there two years from now.

So which markets are at the greatest risk for falling prices?

From the U.S. Market Risk Index:

PMI Summer 2008 U.S. Market Risk Index

MSA Score
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario; CA 95.5
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach; FL 92.2
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach; FL 91.9
Orlando-Kissimmee; FL 91.1
Las Vegas-Paradise; NV 88.1
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater; FL  86.6
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine; CA 85.8
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale; CA 85.7
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall; FL 84.8
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville; CA 82.2

And which markets are in the best shape to avoid such declines? (The least risky markets are at the bottom.)

From the U.S. Market Risk Index:

Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord; NC-SC <1
Kansas City; MO-KS <1
Columbus; OH <1
Cincinnati-Middletown; OH-KY-IN  <1
Indianapolis-Carmel; IN <1
San Antonio; TX <1
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown; TX <1
Pittsburgh; PA <1
Dallas-Plano-Irving; TX <1
Fort Worth-Arlington; TX <1

Looking for something optimistic from this report?

The risk of lower prices in two years declined in 35 of the nation's 50 largest MSAs, and among all 381 MSAs, 326 experienced a decline in risk.