First American CoreLogic recently released a study that ranks America's top 10 riskiest areas in which to make a home loan.
From First American CoreLogic, via Mortgage Insider:
The Q3 2008 Core Mortgage Risk Index (CMRI) (Exhibit 2) has risen 12% above a year ago and increased for eleven of the last twelve quarters. The CMRI—which forecasts delinquency risk—is currently 55% above the base period of Q1 2002, a period near the end of the last U.S. economic recession. Although significantly higher now than during this base period, the CMRI is likely to continue rising nationally over the next 18 months....
Markets with high levels of mortgage risk are typically characterized by home price declines, higher than average fraud and collateral risk, and a struggling local economy. However, in the current phase of the cycle, the largest factor driving mortgage performance—by far—is home price declines....
TOP 10 HIGHEST RISK AMONG LARGEST
100 MARKETS
Of the 100 largest U.S. MSAs (out of 381), the following ten
markets are at highest risk:
| Annual Home Price Appreciation |
|
|---|---|
| 1. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | -25.3% |
| 2. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA | -25.2% |
| 3. Sacramento--Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA | -25.2% |
| 4. Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL | -21.5% |
| 5. Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA | -23.9% |
| 6. San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA | -21.4% |
| 7. Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA | -21.6% |
| 8. Stockton, CA | -24.8% |
| 9. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ | -18.7% |
| 10. Bakersfield, CA | -23.0% |

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holly of GA 10:00PM December 04, 2008
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