The $15,000 Home Buyer Tax Credit and House Prices

In a post over at Econobrowser, Kash Mansori, a senior economist at Jefferson Wells International, argues that the proposed $15,000 home-buyer tax credit would not have a "noticeable impact" on home prices:

Myself, I have a suspicion that in most of the markets that are foundering right now many sellers still need to drop their sales price expectations by $50 thousand, $100 thousand, or more.

If my hunch is correct, then all the house purchase tax credit will do is to modestly increase the number of houses sold each month... with no noticeable impact on house prices.

That doesn't mean that the tax credit would have no impact. In particular, it may be a boon to some cash-constrained households that want to buy a house right now but can't borrow enough. And it should help to reduce inventories of unsold houses by a bit. But if you're hoping that it will make house prices rise, with all of the beneficial economic effects on home equity that such a rise might have... think again.

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