Stocks are warily eyeing a young bear market this afternoon (that's a 20 percent drop from October highs if you're keeping track), and analysts are watching to see if we're in for another leg down.
There's a good chance pain could worsen, given the litany of head winds facing markets right now, including record oil prices, financial sector woes, and housing distress.
Then, there's some troubling history: Most bears get more ferocious before returning to hibernation. The average drop in a bear market dating back to 1940 is about 34 percent, according to Standard & Poor's. It's not clear whether this time will be different, though a few forecasters beg to differ.
But here are a few comforting numbers for long-term investors looking toward the inevitable post-bear bump:
PNC Wealth Management put together a quick look at how the S&P 500 performs following a drop into bear territory. It seems that in the 12 months following a bear market, the S&P historically returns an average of 19.3 percent, based on post-bear periods from the mid-1950s.
Here's a look at the last five post-bear recoveries:
| Dates of 20% Decline | Decline | Following 6 mo. | Following 12 mo. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/1973 11/27/1973 | -20.4 | -7.4 | -26.9 |
| 11/28/1980 5/28/1982 | -20.4 | 20.6 | 47.0 |
| 8/25/1987 10/19/1987 | -33.2 | 20.6 | 23.2 |
| 7/16/1990 10/11/1990 | -19.9 | 26.2 | 29.1 |
| 3/24/2000 3/12/2001 | -22.7 | -7.4 | -1.2 |
Sources: PNC, Standard & Poor's, Bloomberg
Those numbers look pretty resilient, and note that the big drop during the early '70s came at a time when inflation was out of control (and yes, that's still unlikely, even though energy prices have soared, largely because of limited wage growth in the United States).
It's worth looking ahead because although there's not much clarity (or much good news) for stocks right now, markets and equities do have a history of respectable comebacks.
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