At a conference in Dubai, NYU's Nouriel Roubini said credit crisis losses could hit $3.6 trillion, up from $1 trillion worth of writedowns and losses estimated by Bloomberg to have already roiled the global financial system.
Bloomberg reports Roubini says that if losses are really as large as he fears “it means the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with a capital of $1.4 trillion. This is a systemic banking crisis.” He also warns the disease is spreading to Europe, where the Royal Bank of Scotland Group faces an estimated $41 billion loss. Roubini also said the global slowdown will keep oil prices in the $30-$40 a barrel range this year, and he predicted commodities would fall another 15-20 percent from current levels.
Banking losses overseas are indeed becoming far more dangerous, as possible losses mount at institutions that invested heavily in U.S. mortgages, as well as other asset classes that have been badly damaged by the global economic downturn including the sovereign debt of emerging market nations.