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Shilling: Housing Could Fall Even More
Tweet Share on Facebook January 6, 2009 Comment"It's excess inventory, pure and simple."
That's Gary Shilling, the bearish president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. on Tech Ticker, where he says home prices could fall another 20 percent:
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Steve Jobs Might Be Healthier Than Apple's Customers
Tweet Share on Facebook January 6, 2009 Comment (2)It should be a good day for Apple with the annual Macworld Expo in full swing, but does the hype overshadow consumer weakness and questions about first-half guidance?
Analysts predict a modest boost from a round of new of Macs and a peek at Snow Leopard, Apple's latest operating system, and a few were encouraged by yesterday's health update from Steve Jobs. Analysts at Kaufman Bros. said yesterday that Phil Schiller's keynote at the event will be a positive catalyst, and new products could "perhaps accelerate its strong Mac momentum." Today Oppenheimer upgraded Apple following a Dec. 17 downgrade on uncertainty over Job's health. Apparently his announcement that he's suffering from a "hormone imbalance" gave analysts enough information to restore faith in management's continuity.
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Whitman for Governor: How Bad Could It Be?
Tweet Share on Facebook January 5, 2009 Comment (1)Early reaction to the Meg Whitman for Governor story seems less than thrilled with the idea. Two early memes: One, she's an unknown. Two, she's known only for eBay, which is bad.
From BloggingStocks: Should Whitman take the plunge, the odds are against her. For one thing, no one outside of stock geeks and disgruntled eBay sellers knows her name. Of course, several million dollars worth of television advertising will take care of that.
From TechCrunch: Even though she left eBay a year ago, much of her appeal will be tied to the public’s perception of the company, which has seen better days. If eBay turns itself around and is once again seen as a success in two years, that will help her campaign. But if eBay sellers and buyers continue to flee from the service, that will hurt her. She cannot escape the eBay association.
Me: Is the assumption that Whitman's appeal is limited to a handful of eBay investors, sellers and techies a bit overblown? I mean, if Steve Ballmer quit Microsoft to run for office in Washington, would a faltering stock price and a tech-specific reputation keep anyone from thinking he just might be qualified for the job? And is she really less cut out to run a state than the Terminator? Discuss.
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What It Means When Stocks Rally On Bad News
Tweet Share on Facebook January 5, 2009 Comment (1)It didn't happen today when those terrible auto sales hit, but all through December and into the New Year bad economic reports actually sparked almost all of the Dow's recent rally from November lows.
In fact, all the Dow's gains since November 20 came on just six trading days when depressing data (sinking home prices, a dismal employment report, a terrible ISM manufacturing number) sent stocks up by triple digits. That's according to Merrill Lynch economists who find it "absolutely fascinating that since equities bottomed on November 20th, the Dow has managed to rack up 1,482 rally points. And, they all managed to come on days when the data could hardly have been worse."
[See: Housing: Better Than Stocks In '08]
So what gives? Merrill says:
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Sell Wal-Mart in '09?
Tweet Share on Facebook January 5, 2009 Comment (2)Wal-Mart was the darling of the S&P 500 in 2008. It returned almost 17 percent during the year as the as the rest of retail tumbled.
But will ending the year as the S&P 500 leader bring bad luck for the stock in the 2009?
Birinyi Associates says the laggards -- not the leaders -- from the S&P 500 are often the stocks that shine during a new year. During the last 12 years, the single largest contributors to the S&P 500 in a given year lost an average of 2.15 percent in the next. Meanwhile, the most negative stocks in the index rose 6.83 percent (this time around that' s General Electric).
Extra: Here's an interview with Laszlo Birinyi from Barron's.
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