Taleb and Roubini: Black Swans, Dr. Doom and Geithner

February 10, 2009 RSS Feed Print

On Monday, Nouriel Roubini and Nassim Taleb sat down on CNBC to talk about the coming need to nationalize the banking system, basically because none of the new fixes will work. Today we got the latest version of how to fix the problem from Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner that included a lot of talk, but not much in the way of detail on how to fix the system. The market doesn't like the new plan, and the Dow is now down 375 points and bonds are rallying.

It's worth revisiting the interview to keep in mind just what remains at risk in this troubled economy. The FT calls the pair the "the (counter-intuitive) antidote" to the line of thinking among interviewers who spend much of the conversation asking what to do now in preparation for a time when everything is OK again in the market. Problem is, as Paul Krugman jokingly points out, the bearish pundits don't think it's time to be talking about a bounce back. In fact, as credit losses mount and solutions to the banking crisis look unimpressive, we're still at risk of much worse. Watch the whole thing here.

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All of this is going to lead to high inflation. We got into this mess by spending money we don't have, and now the government is going to do the same thing to try to get us out of this mess. It's like digging a hole to get yourself out of a hole. We need to build a ladder instead. This stimulus is going to fail and we as Americans are going to pay a steep price.

Eric of CA 11:27PM February 10, 2009

They're insolvent in the US and many other countries including the UK. We know they have to go into receivership / Chapter 11 at some point so that they can come out of the other side. As usual politicians make single step after single step when radical steps are needed. It also seems to me that the new plan, if you can call it new, amounts to financial protectionism. And we know where that will take us.

Michael 5:09PM February 10, 2009

that none of us, including Mr. Obama and Mr. Geithner know just how broke the banks are.

If the asset side of the balance sheet contains "assets" that no market can value, then NONE of us know. Right?

Muser of NM 3:19PM February 10, 2009

The Ticker

The Ticker

Kirk Shinkle is a senior editor at U.S. News. He writes daily about ups and downs in equity markets, sectors and stocks. Formerly, he covered business and economics on both coasts for Investor's Business Daily.

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