It's The Mouse Vs. The Movies in the theme park fight, and right now the rodent seems to have a slight upper hand (paw?).
On its blog (sub. req.), Pali Research analyst Richard Greenfield takes a look at theme parks through the lens of GE's earnings (home to the NBC Universal Studios park franchise), and sees Disney coming out ahead in what looks to be a very difficult 2009.
Pali says GE theme park attendance declined 11 percent year-over-year, while Walt Disney World managed to hold traffic flat with a year ago during the March quarter. Pali says Disney is stealing visitors from NBC Universal and Seaworld, and luring a good chunk of vacationers with aggressive promotions.
But Pali is keeping its "sell" rating on Disney, predicting tough times at theme parks won't bottom until fiscal '10 with operating income at parks dropping by half. At least the lines will be shorter.

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