The Future of the U.S. Economy: 2050

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This all sounds like poppycock. But Mr. Kotkin will only be proved wrong or right fifty years from now. Enough time for a career. The more likely scenario is lots of poverty, unemployment and disinvestment from social spending due to lack of political will or just plain "mean spirited" political will. It's already here. Huge class gaps between the wealthy and the poor, with no middle class in between. Since the wealthy are in charge of public policy, there is little hope for social mobility or the survival of the middle class. The poor just stay poor.
Will there be revolution in the streets? Probably not. Just a lot of poor people.

George DeMarse of NC 4:42PM May 11, 2012

A very interesting view from Dr. Joel Kotkin, offering a interesting view on the US econoic patterns. We all hope for the best, but Joel Kotkin is the first to actually present a very well shaped argument about the future of the US

Roarodon 8:49AM April 30, 2012

The US I believe will probably have a larger population by 2050 than 400 million more closer to round about 45o million. This does suggest better growth, even better than what was predicted by Joel Kotkin

Bill 9:55AM March 18, 2012

Long live the US empire. of course no empire does last forever, but Americans should be happy with anything they get right now in the current economic situation.

Juho Lee, Republic of Korea 9:48AM March 18, 2012

it's a very boring website

bobby of NE 7:25AM March 15, 2012

Like the man says job's in America are the main issue in almost everyone's thought today. However Kotkins thought's for the future job's prospects is very interesting and as he explained maybe the spark needed to revive the job's market. With today's ever changing technologies including the job's market, other alternatives are presenting themselves within this ever changing job's environment This was an excellent story by Mr. Bandyk. Maybe they should bring this to the attention of the big wigs in Washington and Wall st.

Jimmy Rodriguez of TX 2:40PM March 07, 2012

BHPMOTO-
Whatever the free (i.e. not Obama central planning) market dictates. That is the point, Obama-brand solar panels or battery-explosive "dirty coal electric cars" won't cut it, but, say, quantum-computing technology, private venture-capitalist financed civilian passenger/space aviation, market-based innovation in energy production/efficient consumption (i.e., natural gas transportation/clean coal), nano-technology, etc...you name it. Neither the kleptocrats in Beijing nor the Obama Administration's Keynsian Orwellians will ultimately decide US/China's economic future. So, socialism/central planning=no prosperity, for sure. This is not to say there is no government role, just that government cannot create any "new" economy.

chris m of IL 10:56PM December 16, 2011

What everybody seems to have left out is; where is this innovation for the new economy going to be coming from? our big problem at the moment is access to education; and the U.S. is not providing at the moment. we are leaving it up to socialist contries who provide free education to their best students to lead the world. Do we also need to become socialist? Or do we chip in for our brightst so that we can retire in peace.
work hard, pay your taxes, support your local community, and then we can retire to a life of leisure and helping our community.

bhpmoto of WA 3:43AM December 08, 2011

Sina,
Become global? Like, China? Laughable. Repression of ethnic and religious minorities hardly renders you cosmopolitan or "global". Yes,you have KFC, but do you have "America Town" in Shanghai like US has "China town" in NYC, Chicago, San Francisco?
Neither are you (mainland China) a true Tiger economy, and Hong Kong evolved via Westernization.
China has always claimed to be the "Middle Kingdom". Kingdom of Copy, you say???? More likely Mainland China has stolen or bribed much of what it has acquired technology-wise, primarily through industrial espionage, but also via Hong Kong. What has truly originated in mainland China in the last 1,000 years? Really??? America's (temporary) malaise is hardly China's ascent to primacy. Your confusion stems from erroneous zero-sum thinking and it is you who fails to see the big picture. If US becomes third world (never happen), then so China would, even more than western China already is.
Unfortunately, toeing the Communist Party line and state-run media does not render you an objective arbiter of facts.
China is to be commended for lifting much of its population out of poverty and only reformers (Deng Xiaoping) accomplished what Mao couldn't, but mainland China is hardly the capital of the tech sector or model of efficient industry-it is a paper Tiger but not Asian Tiger. In fact, US manufacturing workers are much, much more productive and technically competent-100,000 unskilled peasants cannot match its US workforce counterpart, except in a race towards the bottom in relative wages.
To suggest a country with stifling corruption, lack of real innovation, jack-booted authoritarianism, a housing bubble of its own ready to collapse, massive rural poverty and repressed ethnic/religious/political minorities, arbitrary enforcement of law and government control of media, internet and the kangaroo-court judiciary, is FIRST WORLD while the US is becoming THIRD WORLD, is to truly toe the Beijing Party Line.
China aspires to great-nation status, but acts like a third-world dictatorship with respect to its people (and Tibet, etc...) Deflating the value of its currency and mega-violations of free trade agreements, also known as CHEATING, is not befitting great-nation status.
Yes, America has huge problems, but third world? Stop toeing the Party line, please.

Chris M Elgin of IL 8:30PM November 26, 2011

Actually I don't find the argues above strong. Just pointing out small issues and not to describe the global complicated economy is not a correct way to approach your ideas.
Of-course, it depends on how far we look at it but in future (no exact date), there will be big changes in world's power.
Dear Chris M, you are talking to people who hate what you like like children? what is it to do with truth and undercover economy?! No one is talking about hate or love of USA here, let's look at facts and statistics, you can take them for short time last 50 years or long term last 1000 years, and you can end up with different results. In long term there is possibility that US even be like today's 3rd world countries as they were ahead many years ago. Read the world history, all you see today is because new industrialization happened to be in west and ... .
1 more thing, china and other countries may had been copycat but not everyone out side your dictionary of famous people is stupid. People around the world, can learn, can innovate, china did too, first copy but then developing and now innovating (check the number of patents that achinese company lately won for example in new 4g system, telecom industry), that means they could invent it before others (US and etc).
So as the world is going global, try to get global, forget the me, you , US and ... it is better for the future of all, they are all in same earth :)

Sina 3:26PM November 21, 2011