Permabear Peter Schiff's Worst-Case Scenario

Reader Comments
Back to article

I am 33 years old. I've been studying Austrian economics for 10 years, but have always invested for short-term wins on swing trades. Recently, I've come to the conclusion that to survive this economic meltdown I need to get serious about hedging inflation and scarcity of the things we all take for granted. I have a small portfolio (roughly $80,000) that I just moved into oil and gold. These are commodities that have a steady demand but whose value will adjust to the falling value of the dollar and protect me against wild swings in the economy. Furthermore, it is clear that oil reserves are waning and demand is growing whilst we continue to print dollars with no backing, which will further inflate our currency and destroy wealth... It's really the only safe bet.

Riley of UT 11:12AM June 15, 2009

I have nothing against Schiff and I often agree with his investment opinions but I have a few problems with the way he argues, especially in his book. In his book he mentions how great his currency picks have performed (at the time) against the dollar in the prior 12 months. Since then, the dollar has trumped all of the currencies he has mentioned. When pressed about it during media appearances he claims that (1) 12 months is too short of a time frame and (2) they are all fiat currencies so it doesn't matter. That is dishonest dialogue.
For my full review of Schiff's book please go to http://soyouthinkyoucaninvest.blogspot.com/2009/04/peter-schiff-little-book-of-bull-moves.html

SoYouThink of NJ 6:40PM April 10, 2009

Peter Schiff is getting a hearing because he's accurately pointing out our bad economic policies and their consequences.
Regarding short term outcome of investments, its certainly possible to invest in things that lose money in the short run, but that work out in the long run. Foreign investments with dependencies on the US economy (and they all do) will all go through pain as the US economy goes through its contortions.
Things like gold will do well as the dollar collapses. But gold also went down when people pulled out of stocks and dollars became more valued.
Its impossible to predict how the actions of government and the unwinding of all these bad investments will interact.
But the long term trends are clear. The dependency of the US on debt is unsustainable. The housing bubble cannot be re-inflated. The government's response to this crisis will wreak more havoc.

Al Brown of CA 7:30PM April 08, 2009

I have discovered austrian economics in a period when I was really distressed about our current world. From then on, my life took a real upward swing and I was once again able to understand economic life and see the world for what it truly is. Socialism was never defeated and it is still very vibrant among our policy makers. The evolutionary process of our modern world toward a civilization of peace and exchange cannot be possible without a realistic application of free market principles. Peter schiff has shown that the US is basically on big ponzi scheme and it is about time people realize that.
I am glad to have been born at a period, although difficult and in crisis, where the once accepted fallacies are now been tearing apart. It is about time we return to a trully productive society as a nation and cease to exploit the world while we are wasting the fruit of others labor.
Austrian economics encompass not only economics, but join hand with the Libertarian principles that built up the so called Western modern civilization.
For the first time in my life I feel like an educated man and I am excited by the possibility that an open free non interventionist world for modern mankind in general. I went to college and sometimes wondered what I was doing there; ever since I began to engage in Austrian and Libertarian studies, I truly feel like a much more mature person.
Peter schiff is truly a messenger for a school of thought that has been purposely ignored by the government interventionists and empire builders and socialist of all sorts. Peter schiff is a messenger for the younger generation like me and others who are watching our fathers and leader destroy our world for their short term gain. This is an exciting period for modern civilization and an opportunity for realistic change and growth.

steve of MD 7:00PM March 19, 2009

This is an excellent piece on Schiff, his family background and his track record
http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090213
Amazing how this sort of guy keeps getting on the airwaves.

Bryan of CT 12:01PM February 13, 2009

You should read Peter Shiffs book.Why foreign investments are better (selected stocks) is because there economies are in recession, not collapse. The dollar will collapse, most foriegn currencies will not. A "Safe haven" is never a stock, no matter what country you invest if you want a safe haven buy gold or a Hong Kong momey market fund.

Terry of MN 6:46AM February 12, 2009

dose peter schiff have a news letter. If so how do I sign up.

carl of PA 7:25PM February 11, 2009

"...one thing I don't understand is how he can think that buying foreign stocks / bonds / commodities will be a safe haven for his investments when the catastrophy hits..."
I don't think he's suggesting foreign stocks will be immune from a dollar collapse. It's just that their devaluation will be much less than our near-total collapse. Remember that he's recommending strongly to invest in precious metals and commodities, which will largely be immune to the demise of the dollar.

Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg of VA 3:17PM February 09, 2009

I have heard Mr. Schiff talk on TV and I have read some of his articles. In general, what he says makes sense. But one thing I don't understand is how he can think that buying foreign stocks / bonds / commodities will be a safe haven for his investments when the catastrophy hits sometime within the next 18 months. It seems to me that there will be no safe haven. If the US markets go down, you can count on the foreign markets tanking too.

Mac of WI 6:43PM February 07, 2009

Dude, why are you talking about Germany in 1948? There WAS NO SUCH THING as Germany in 1948. There were just 4 zones of occupation, controlled by the US, the UK, France, and the USSR. What the ___ are you talking about?

mike 5:28AM February 07, 2009